Final Projection

Davidson elbows into the field by winning the A10.  Going to be a crazy tournament!  Risers include Arizona, Houston, West Virginia and Providence.    


Bubble Talk
The bubble got smaller with the Davidson win. That forces two automatic qualifiers up to the 11 line.  Is Loyola-Chicago one of the two?  They shouldn't be - they have a lofty RPI of 22 but one win over an RPI top 50 team all season.  I think eight teams are vying for the final three spots.  I still have Texas, Kansas State and Oklahoma in.  I have Syracuse out (4-8 Quad 1 record, best wins against Miami, Clemson and Louisville), but they have a decent case.  Followed by Marquette (#57 RPI), Middle Tennessee State (only win over a tournament team is Murray State), Louisville (0-11 vs. RPI top 50) and ASU (#66 RPI).  


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  Duke, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Purdue
#3 seeds:  Michigan,  Michigan State, Tennessee, Auburn
#4 seeds:  Arizona, Wichita State, Houston, West Virginia
#5 seeds:  Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Clemson, Kentucky
#6 seeds:  Ohio State, Miami (FL), Arkansas, Texas A&M
#7 seeds:  Florida, Nevada, Rhode Island, Providence
#8 seeds:  TCU, Seton Hall, Missouri, Alabama
#9 seeds:  VA Tech, NC State, Butler, Florida State
#10 seeds:  St. Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, UCLA, USC
#11 seeds:  San Diego State, Davidson, play-in: Creighton / Texas,  play-in:  Kansas State / Oklahoma
#12 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Marshall
#13 seeds:  College of Charleston, UNC Greensboro, Buffalo, Murray State
#14 seeds:  Wright State, Bucknell, Montana, UMBC  
#15 seeds:  Georgia State, SF Austin, Lipscomb, Iona  
#16 seeds:  CS Fullerton, Penn, play-in:  Radford / LIU Brooklyn, play-in: Texas Southern / NC Central  
First Five Out:   Syracuse, Marquette, Middle Tennessee State, Louisville, Arizona State


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Calm Before the Storm

Conference tournaments wrapping up.  Nevada drops a bomb on the field by losing in the MWC tournament.  They will still get in as an at-large, but now the MWC tournament winner needs a spot in the field as well.  Purdue up, Auburn down.  Kentucky up, Nevada down.  Providence up, UCLA down.  Alabama up, Butler down.  San Diego State elbows into the field as the presumed MWC winner, MTSU out.  


Bubble Talk
Nobody else on the bubble can play their way in with Oregon bowing out.  I think Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Syracuse are in.  Middle Tennessee State, Louisville, Washington, ASU and Marquette are out.  


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  Duke, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Purdue
#3 seeds:  Auburn, Michigan,  Michigan State, Tennessee
#4 seeds:  Wichita State, Texas Tech, Gonzaga,  Clemson
#5 seeds:  Houston, Arizona, West Virginia, Ohio State
#6 seeds:  Miami (FL), Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky 
#7 seeds:  Seton Hall, Nevada, Texas A&M, TCU
#8 seeds:  Missouri, Creighton, Rhode Island, Providence
#9 seeds:  USC, UCLA, Florida State, Alabama
#10 seeds:  St. Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, VA Tech, NC State
#11 seeds:  Butler, San Diego State*,  play-in: Texas / Kansas State,  play-in:  Oklahoma / Syracuse
#12 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State*, Western Kentucky*, South Dakota State
#13 seeds:   Buffalo*, Murray State, College of Charleston, UNC Greensboro
#14 seeds:  Vermont*, Louisiana-Lafayette*, Bucknell, Montana* 
#15 seeds:  Wright State, CS Fullerton*, Iona, Lipscomb 
#16 seeds:  Harvard*, Radford, play-in:  SF Austin* / LIU Brooklyn, play-in: Hampton* / Arkansas-Pine Bluff*  
First Five Out:   Middle Tennessee State, Louisville, Washington, Arizona State, Marquette

* presumed automatic qualifiers


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Final Weekend Upon Us

Cincy moves up to the 2 line in place of Purdue.  


Bubble Talk
Focusing on 12 teams that I truly believe are on the bubble.  Given the numbers, 6 are in and 6 are out.  This is my current rank order:  Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Alabama, Syracuse, Middle Tennessee State, Louisville, Washington, ASU, Marquette, Oregon and Baylor.  Kansas State picks up a nice win against TCU yesterday to bolster its resume.  Alabama with a nice win against TAMU to get to a very solid 6-6 in Quadrant 1 games.  Syracuse with an ugly 3-8 record in Q1 games but a win against Louisville helps.  MTSU with a very shaky loss yesterday.  Can they get an at-large?  3-3 in Q1 games but best wins this season are against Old Dominion, Murray State and Western Kentucky (twice).  Louisville 0-11 vs. RPI top 50.  People still talking ASU but Washington has a better argument (20-12 overall vs 20-11 for ASU, 3-5 in Q1 vs. 3-4 for ASU, but Washington beat ASU head to head and has a better signature win at Kansas).  Oregon is the only team on the wrong side of the bubble that can continue to make noise in its conference tournament. 


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  Duke, North Carolina, Auburn, Cincinnati
#3 seeds:  Purdue, Michigan,  Michigan State, Tennessee
#4 seeds:  Wichita State, Texas Tech, Gonzaga,  Clemson
#5 seeds:  Houston, Arizona, West Virginia, Ohio State
#6 seeds:  Miami (FL), Nevada, Arkansas, Florida 
#7 seeds:  Seton Hall, Kentucky, Texas A&M, TCU
#8 seeds:  Missouri, Creighton, Rhode Island, UCLA
#9 seeds:  USC, Florida State, Providence, Butler
#10 seeds:  St. Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, VA Tech, NC State
#11 seeds:  Texas, Kansas State, play-in:  Oklahoma / Alabama, play-in:  Syracuse  / Middle Tennessee State
#12 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State*, Western Kentucky*, South Dakota State
#13 seeds:   Buffalo*, Murray State, College of Charleston, UNC Greensboro
#14 seeds:  Vermont*, Louisiana-Lafayette*, Bucknell, Montana* 
#15 seeds:  Wright State, UC Santa Barbara*, Iona, Lipscomb 
#16 seeds:  Harvard*, Radford, play-in:  SF Austin* / LIU Brooklyn, play-in: Hampton* / Prairie View*  
First Six Out:   Louisville, Washington, Arizona State, Marquette, Oregon, Baylor

* presumed automatic qualifiers


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Home Stretch

Bucknell, welcome to The Dance.  


Bubble Talk
Focusing on 10 teams that I truly believe are on the bubble.  Given the numbers, 7 are in and 3 are out.  This is my current rank order:  Providence, Texas, Oklahoma, Washington, ASU, Kansas State, Syracuse, Louisville, Marquette, Baylor.


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, Auburn
#3 seeds:  Michigan,  Michigan State, Cincinnati, Tennessee
#4 seeds:  Wichita State, Clemson, Arizona, Gonzaga
#5 seeds:  Houston, Texas Tech, Miami (FL), West Virginia
#6 seeds:  Ohio State, Nevada, Florida, Seton Hall 
#7 seeds:  Arkansas, Texas A&M, Kentucky, TCU
#8 seeds:  Missouri, Creighton, Rhode Island, USC
#9 seeds:  Florida State, VA Tech, NC State , UCLA
#10 seeds:  St. Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, Butler, Providence
#11 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, Texas, Oklahoma, play-in:  Washington / Arizona State
#12 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo*, New Mexico State*, play-in:  Kansas State / Syracuse
#13 seeds:  South Dakota State, Murray State, College of Charleston, UNC Greensboro
#14 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Vermont*, Bucknell, Montana* 
#15 seeds:  Wright State, UC Santa Barbara*, Iona, Lipscomb 
#16 seeds:  Harvard*, Radford, play-in:  SF Austin* / LIU Brooklyn, play-in: Hampton* / Prairie View*  
First Five Out:  Louisville, Marquette, Baylor, Alabama, Boise State

* presumed automatic qualifiers


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Conference Champions Joining the Dance

Lots of obscure names joining the party including LIU Brooklyn, Wright State, Radford and Lipscomb.  Not a lot of opportunities left for mid-majors to steal bids now that Gonzaga is in the clear.  Middle Tennessee State would likely still get in as an at-large if they cough up the CUSA title, but that's about it.  Gonzaga is a riser, Saint Mary's is a faller.  


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, Auburn
#3 seeds:  Michigan,  Michigan State, Cincinnati, Tennessee
#4 seeds:  Wichita State, Clemson, Arizona, Gonzaga
#5 seeds:  Houston, Texas Tech, Miami (FL), West Virginia
#6 seeds:  Ohio State, Nevada, Arkansas, Seton Hall
#7 seeds:  Texas A&M, Kentucky, TCU, Florida
#8 seeds:  Missouri, Creighton, Rhode Island, USC
#9 seeds:  Florida State, Oklahoma, VA Tech, Saint Mary's
#10 seeds:  NC State, St. Bonaventure, UCLA, Syracuse
#11 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, Butler, Louisville, play-in:  Arizona State / Providence
#12 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo*, New Mexico State*, play-in:  Texas / Kansas State
#13 seeds:  South Dakota State, Murray State, College of Charleston, UNC Greensboro
#14 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Vermont*, Bucknell*, Montana* 
#15 seeds:  Wright State, UC Santa Barbara*, Iona, Lipscomb 
#16 seeds:  Harvard*, Radford, play-in:  SF Austin* / LIU Brooklyn, play-in: Hampton* / Prairie View*  
First Five Out:   Washington, Baylor, Marquette, Alabama, Boise State

* presumed automatic qualifiers


Bubble Talk
Who is going to step up in the conference tournaments?         


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Countdown to Selection Sunday

As a reminder, the new selection committee lingo groups wins into quadrants and they break down as follows:  

• Quadrant 1: games at home vs teams ranked 1-30 in the RPI, neutral vs 1-50, road vs 1-75

• Quadrant 2: home vs 31-75, neutral vs 51-100, road vs 76-135

• Quadrant 3: home vs 76-160, neutral vs 101-200, road vs 136-240

• Quadrant 4: home vs 161-plus, neutral vs 201-plus, Road vs 241-plus

Risers since my last projection include Big Ten Tournament champs Michigan (6-5 in Quadrant 1 games) and Middle Tennessee State (24-6 overall, 3-3 in Q1 games).  Fallers include Butler and Louisville (each 19-12 overall, 3-10 in Q1 games).  New names starting to show up as conference champions crowned.


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, Auburn
#3 seeds:  Michigan,  Michigan State, Cincinnati, Tennessee
#4 seeds:  Wichita State, Clemson, Arizona, Houston
#5 seeds:  Texas Tech, Ohio State, Miami (FL), West Virginia
#6 seeds:  Gonzaga, Nevada, Arkansas, Seton Hall
#7 seeds:  Texas A&M, Kentucky, TCU, Florida
#8 seeds:  Missouri, Creighton, Rhode Island, USC
#9 seeds:   Saint Mary's, Florida State, Oklahoma, VA Tech 
#10 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, St. Bonaventure, UCLA, Syracuse
#11 seeds:  Butler, Louisville, NC State, play-in:  Arizona State / Providence
#12 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo*, New Mexico State*, play-in:  Texas / Kansas State
#13 seeds:  Murray State, South Dakota State*, College of Charleston*, Louisiana-Lafayette* 
#14 seeds:  Vermont*, Rider*, Bucknell*, East Tennessee State* 
#15 seeds:  Montana*, Wagner*, Wright State*, UC Santa Barbara* 
#16 seeds:  Lipscomb, Harvard*, play-in:  Radford / SF Austin*, play-in: Hampton* / Prairie View*  
First Five Out:   Washington, Baylor, Marquette, Alabama, Boise State

* presumed automatic qualifiers


Bubble Talk
Washington, Baylor and Alabama (17-14 overall) fall out.         


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Less than 3 weeks to Selection Sunday

As a reminder, the new selection committee lingo groups wins into quadrants and they break down as follows:  

• Quadrant 1: games at home vs teams ranked 1-30 in the RPI, neutral vs 1-50, road vs 1-75

• Quadrant 2: home vs 31-75, neutral vs 51-100, road vs 76-135

• Quadrant 3: home vs 76-160, neutral vs 101-200, road vs 136-240

• Quadrant 4: home vs 161-plus, neutral vs 201-plus, Road vs 241-plus

Risers since my last projection include Kentucky (4-7 in Quadrant 1 games despite recent losing streak) and Gonzaga (RPI is terrible but 25-4 overall and 3-2 in Q1 games).  Fallers include Oklahoma and Texas A&M (plenty of Q1 wins for both but has a team from a major conference ever received an at-large bid with a conference record 3 games below .500)?


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  North Carolina, Auburn, Purdue, Cincinnati
#3 seeds:  Duke,  Michigan State, Texas Tech, Tennessee
#4 seeds:  Arizona, Clemson , Wichita State, Houston
#5 seeds:  Nevada, Ohio State, West Virginia, Gonzaga
#6 seeds:  Kentucky, TCU, Rhode Island, Miami (FL)
#7 seeds:  Michigan, Arizona State , Alabama, Seton Hall
#8 seeds:  Saint Mary's, Arkansas, Florida State, Providence
#9 seeds:   Butler, Creighton, Missouri, Florida
#10 seeds:  Oklahoma, Texas A&M, St. Bonaventure, VA Tech 
#11 seeds:  Washington,  NC State, Middle Tennessee State*, play-in:  Texas / UCLA
#12 seeds:  Buffalo*, Vermont*, New Mexico State*, play-in: Baylor / Kansas State
#13 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Loyola-Chicago*, East Tennessee State*, Rider*
#14 seeds:  Belmont*, Bucknell*, College of Charleston*, UC Santa Barbara*
#15 seeds:  Montana*, Northern Kentucky*, Wagner*, South Dakota*
#16 seeds:  Florida Gulf Coast*, Winthrop*, play-in:  SF Austin* / Penn*, play-in: Southern* / Savannah State*  
First Five Out:   Syracuse, USC, Louisville, Marquette, Georgia

* presumed automatic qualifiers


Bubble Talk
Moved MTSU up to the 11 line - resume is looking better with 22-5 overall record and 2-3 in Q1 games.  Syracuse, USC and Louisville out with poor Q1 records.       


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

New Selection Committee Terminology

The NCAA Top 16 reveal over the weekend raised some eyebrows and shined a light on an announcement the selection committee quietly made in December.  The selection committee will no longer use top 50 RPI, top 100, 200 and 201+ as dividing categories.  Instead, the new terminology will be Quadrants 1, 2, 3 and 4. The decision is to get away from treating every team the same if the game was on the road, neutral or at home based on their power rating. Now the road/neutral games will matter more.  Here are the definitions of those categories:
• Quadrant 1: games at home vs teams ranked 1-30 in the RPI, neutral vs 1-50, road vs 1-75
• Quadrant 2: home vs 31-75, neutral vs 51-100, road vs 76-135
• Quadrant 3: home vs 76-160, neutral vs 101-200, road vs 136-240
• Quadrant 4: home vs 161-plus, neutral vs 201-plus, Road vs 241-plus

So now if a team is able to beat the #1 team in the RPI at home and the #75 team in the RPI on the road, it will have two Quadrant 1 wins.  Makes perfect sense.  The critics, including Jay Bilas, will tell you they are basically taking a trash RPI number and reformatting it into another trash number.   Garbage in, garbage out.  Hard to argue with that because most agree RPI is not a great indicator of relative value in the first place. But, that being said, it is what it is so this year we get to talk about Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 4 losses as “good wins” and “bad losses”.

Below is a link to the new Team Sheets:
https://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/images/2017/12/04/team_sheet_guide1.pdf

Given my new perspective, I moved KU up to the 1 line with the most Quadrant 1 wins in the nation (9) against just 3 losses.  Interesting decisions on the 4 line - Wichita State is 2-3 in Quadrant 1 games, TAMU is 5-6.  Houston up to the 6 line with a great win over Cincy and a 4-2 record in Quadrant 1 games.

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

• #1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
• #2 seeds:  Auburn, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Texas Tech 
• #3 seeds:  Purdue, Michigan State, Duke,  Clemson  
• #4 seeds:  Arizona, Tennessee, Wichita State, Texas A&M
• #5 seeds:  Nevada, Rhode Island, Ohio State,  Oklahoma
• #6 seeds:  Houston, Missouri, West Virginia, Seton Hall
• #7 seeds:  Creighton, Alabama, Gonzaga, Miami (FL)
• #8 seeds:  Providence, TCU, Florida State, Arkansas
• #9 seeds:  Kentucky, Saint Mary's, Arizona State, Michigan
• #10 seeds:  Washington, Butler,  Florida, Louisville
• #11 seeds:  NC State, Kansas State, play-in: VA Tech / Texas, play-in: UCLA / St. Bonaventure
• #12 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, Buffalo*, Vermont*, New Mexico State*  
• #13 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Loyola-Chicago*, East Tennessee State*, Rider*
• #14 seeds:  Belmont*, Bucknell*, College of Charleston*, UC Santa Barbara*
• #15 seeds:  Montana*, Northern Kentucky*, Wagner*, South Dakota*
• #16 seeds:  Florida Gulf Coast*, Winthrop*, play-in:  SF Austin* / Penn*, play-in: Arkansas-Pine Bluff* / Savannah State*  
• First Six Out:   USC, Syracuse, Temple, Baylor, Utah, Marquette

   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk

The 11 line is dominated by flawed teams with a healthy number of Quadrant 1 wins including NC State, Kansas State, VA Tech, Texas and St. Bonny.  USC and Syracuse both on the outside looking in with poor Quadrant 1 records.       

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Purdue Hanging On

Tough week for Purdue with losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, but still hanging on to a 1 seed.  Clemson making a case though with a 20-4 overall record and 3 wins against the RPI top 25 (6 wins against the RPI top 50).  Texas A&M up to the 4 line now with an impressive 7 wins against the RPI top 50.  Virginia Tech moves into the field with a heck of a win at Virginia.  VA Tech and Texas each with a pair of top 25 RPI wins. Syracuse and USC both playing 11 seed play-in games with decent RPIs, but weak records vs. RPI top 50.  NC State and the other newbie, Temple, are the last two in, each with flawed resumes but the former with an impressive 4 wins vs. RPI top 25 and the latter with 3 wins vs. RPI top 25.  

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

• #1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Purdue  
• #2 seeds:  Clemson, North Carolina, Duke, Kansas 
• #3 seeds:  Auburn, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Texas Tech 
• #4 seeds:  Tennessee, Ohio State, Arizona, Texas A&M
• #5 seeds:  Rhode Island, Oklahoma, Nevada, West Virginia
• #6 seeds:  Creighton, Kentucky, Wichita State, Seton Hall
• #7 seeds:  Miami (FL), Missouri, TCU, Arizona State
• #8 seeds:  Houston, Alabama, Gonzaga, Arkansas
• #9 seeds:  Butler, Florida, Florida State, Washington
• #10 seeds:  Providence, Saint Mary's, Michigan, UCLA
• #11 seeds:  VA Tech, Texas, play-in: Syracuse / USC, play-in: NC State / Temple  
• #12 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, Buffalo*, Vermont*, New Mexico State*  
• #13 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Loyola-Chicago*, East Tennessee State*, Rider*
• #14 seeds:  Belmont*, Bucknell*, College of Charleston*, UC Santa Barbara*
• #15 seeds:  Montana*, Northern Kentucky*, Wagner*, South Dakota*
• #16 seeds:  Florida Gulf Coast*, UNC Asheville, play-in:  SF Austin / Penn*, play-in: Arkansas-Pine Bluff* / Savannah State*  
• First Six Out:  Louisville, Baylor, Mississippi State, Kansas State, St. Bonaventure, Boise State

   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk

Kansas State moves out - tough to overcome the #63 RPI.  Louisville moves out - tough to overcome the 1-8 record against RPI top 50.  Baylor now knocking on the door with some impressive conference wins.  Miss State still in consideration.  St. Bonny's and Boise on the outside looking in.       

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

X Marks the Spot

Auburn trips up at home against Texas A&M (resulting in a nice jump for TAMU).  Duke falls at UNC.  Xavier improves to 22-3, 3-1 against the RPI top 25.  Big jump for Houston up to the 7 line.  They just keep winning.  Moved Middle Tennessee State down to the 12 line with no wins against the RPI top 50, thereby creating two play-in games on the 11 line.         

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

• #1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Xavier
• #2 seeds:  Kansas, Auburn, Duke, Clemson
• #3 seeds:  North Carolina, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Texas Tech 
• #4 seeds:  Ohio State, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Kentucky
• #5 seeds:  Creighton, Arizona, Nevada, Rhode Island
• #6 seeds:  Miami (FL), Seton Hall, West Virginia, Wichita State
• #7 seeds:  Texas A&M, Saint Mary's, TCU, Houston
• #8 seeds:  Providence, Arizona State, Michigan, Arkansas
• #9 seeds:  Missouri, Florida State, Butler, Washington
• #10 seeds:  Alabama, Texas, Florida, Gonzaga
• #11 seeds:  NC State, UCLA, play-in: USC / Syracuse, play-in: Louisville /  Kansas State 
• #12 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, Buffalo*, New Mexico State*, Loyola-Chicago* 
• #13 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Vermont*, East Tennessee State*, Belmont* 
• #14 seeds:  UC Santa Barbara*, Bucknell*, Wagner*, Northern Kentucky*
• #15 seeds:  Montana*, College of Charleston*, SF Austin*, South Dakota*
• #16 seeds:  Iona*, Penn*  play-in: Radford* / Florida Gulf Coast*, play-in: Arkansas-Pine Bluff* / North Carolina A&T*  
• First Six Out:  Mississippi State, VA Tech, Western Kentucky, St. Bonaventure, Boise State, Temple

   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk

UCLA moves solidly into the field with an impressive win at Arizona. They now have 4 wins against the RPI top 50.  Kansas State re-enters the field as well with a 17-7 overall record and 3 wins against the RPI top 50.  Western Kentucky (1 win against RPI top 50) and Boise State (0 wins against RPI top 50) fall out of the field.  Louisville hanging in there despite an 0-6 record against RPI top 25, 1-8 against RPI top 50.  I still think Mississippi State is within striking distance.  Temple has 3 wins against the RPI top 25 - can they keep winning?      

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Auburn Joins the Giants

Auburn just keeps winning and replaces Duke on the 1 line.  Clemson pushes up to the 2 line fueled by a 3-2 record against the RPI top 25.      

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

• #1 seeds:  Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Auburn
• #2 seeds:  Duke, Kansas, Xavier, Clemson
• #3 seeds:  Tennessee, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, North Carolina
• #4 seeds:  Michigan State, Arizona, Miami (FL), Ohio State
• #5 seeds:  Nevada, Oklahoma,  Seton Hall, Kentucky 
• #6 seeds:  Rhode Island, Creighton, West Virginia, Wichita State
• #7 seeds:  Saint Mary's, TCU, Washington, Florida State
• #8 seeds:  Arkansas, Providence, Michigan, Missouri 
• #9 seeds:  Butler, Texas A&M, Gonzaga, Florida
• #10 seeds:  Houston, Texas, Alabama, Arizona State
• #11 seeds:  USC, Syracuse, Middle Tennessee State*, play-in: NC State / Louisville
• #12 seeds:  Buffalo*, New Mexico State*, Loyola-Chicago*, play-in: Western Kentucky / Boise State
• #13 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Vermont*, East Tennessee State*, Belmont* 
• #14 seeds:  UC Santa Barbara*, Bucknell*, Wagner*, Northern Kentucky*
• #15 seeds:  Montana*, College of Charleston*, SF Austin*, South Dakota*
• #16 seeds:  Iona*, Penn*  play-in: Radford* / Florida Gulf Coast*, play-in: Grambling* / North Carolina A&T*  
• First Six Out:  UCLA, Mississippi State, VA Tech, SMU, St. Bonaventure, Kansas State

   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk

Last two in are Western Kentucky and Boise State with minimal wins against the RPI top 50.  UCLA and Mississippi State move into consideration.  Texas A&M now safely in the field after improving conference record to two games below .500.     

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Happy Groundhog Day

Auburn just keeps winning and moves up to the 2 line.   

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

• #1 seeds:  Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Duke
• #2 seeds:  Xavier, Kansas, Auburn,  Oklahoma
• #3 seeds:  Clemson, Tennessee, North Carolina, Texas Tech 
• #4 seeds:  Cincinnati, Arizona, Kentucky, Michigan State
• #5 seeds:  Seton Hall, Miami (FL), Ohio State, Nevada
• #6 seeds:  Rhode Island, TCU, Wichita State, Creighton
• #7 seeds:  Louisville, Butler, West Virginia, Saint Mary's
• #8 seeds:  Arkansas, Michigan, Florida, Texas
• #9 seeds:  Alabama, Florida State, USC, Gonzaga
• #10 seeds:  Providence, Houston, Arizona State, Syracuse 
• #11 seeds:  NC State, Washington, Middle Tennessee State*, play-in: Missouri / Western Kentucky
• #12 seeds:  Buffalo*, New Mexico State*, Loyola-Chicago*, play-in:  Texas A&M / Boise State
• #13 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Vermont*, East Tennessee State*, Belmont* 
• #14 seeds:  UC Santa Barbara*, Bucknell*, Wagner*, Northern Kentucky*
• #15 seeds:  Montana*, College of Charleston*, SF Austin*, South Dakota*
• #16 seeds:  Iona*, Penn*  play-in: Radford* / Florida Gulf Coast*, play-in: Jackson State* / North Carolina A&T*  
• First Six Out:  Kansas State, VA Tech, SMU, Georgia, Utah, Marquette

   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk

Missouri and Western Kentucky (early win against Purdue is the resume highlight) move into the field.  SMU and Kansas State fall out.  Both have woeful RPIs in the mid 60s.  Texas A&M still in the field, for now, but needs to improve upon its 3-6 conference record.     

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

ACC Tracking for 9 Teams

Duke-UVA lived up to expectations as a hard fought heavyweight battle.  Not a lot of movement on the 1 through 3 lines.   

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

• #1 seeds:  Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Duke
• #2 seeds:  Xavier, Kansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma
• #3 seeds:   Auburn,  Clemson, Tennessee, Texas Tech
• #4 seeds:  Arizona, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Michigan State
• #5 seeds:  TCU, Miami (FL), West Virginia, Ohio State
• #6 seeds:  Nevada, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Wichita State
• #7 seeds:   Louisville, Creighton, Florida, Butler
• #8 seeds:  Arkansas, Alabama, Florida State, Saint Mary's
• #9 seeds:  Providence, Arizona State, Michigan, Texas
• #10 seeds:  USC, Houston, Gonzaga, Syracuse
• #11 seeds:  NC State, SMU, Middle Tennessee State*, play-in: Kansas State / Boise State
• #12 seeds:  New Mexico State*, Louisiana-Lafayette*, East Tennessee State*, play-in:  Texas A&M / Washington
• #13 seeds:  Northern Kentucky*, Belmont*, Vermont*, South Dakota*
• #14 seeds:  Bucknell*, Buffalo*, Loyola-Chicago*, Penn*
• #15 seeds:  Iona*, Florida Gulf Coast*, Montana*, SF Austin* 
• #16 seeds:  College of Charleston*, UC Santa Barbara*, play-in: Wagner* / Radford*, play-in: Jackson State* / North Carolina A&T*  
• First Six Out:  Marquette, Missouri, Western Kentucky, Maryland, Georgia, VA Tech

   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk

NC State surges into the field.  Now 4-4 against the RPI top 25.  Marquette falls out of the field at 1-6 against the RPI top 25, 2-7 against the RPI top 50.  Texas A&M still in the field, for now, but needs to improve upon its 2-6 conference record.  Still a lot of teams in play on the bubble so I lengthened the list from First Four Out to First Six Out.   

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Final Weekend in January

My four projected #1 seeds are holding steady.  Is Duke-UVA this weekend a Final Four preview?   

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

• #1 seeds:  Villanova, Duke, Virginia, Purdue
• #2 seeds:  Xavier, North Carolina, Kansas, Oklahoma
• #3 seeds:   Auburn,  Clemson, Tennessee, Texas Tech
• #4 seeds:  West Virginia, Arizona, TCU, Cincinnati
• #5 seeds:   Miami (FL), Michigan State, Ohio State, Rhode Island
• #6 seeds:  Kentucky, Nevada, Seton Hall, Wichita State
• #7 seeds:   Louisville, Creighton, Butler, Florida
• #8 seeds:  Texas A&M, Michigan, Florida State, Arizona State
• #9 seeds:  Saint Mary's, Arkansas, Providence, Texas
• #10 seeds:  Alabama, Houston, SMU, Gonzaga
• #11 seeds:  Kansas State, USC, Middle Tennessee State*, play-in: Marquette / Syracuse
• #12 seeds:  New Mexico State*, Louisiana-Lafayette*, East Tennessee State*, play-in:  Boise State / Washington
• #13 seeds:  Northern Kentucky*, Belmont*, Vermont*, South Dakota*
• #14 seeds:  Bucknell*, Buffalo*, Loyola-Chicago*, Penn*
• #15 seeds:  Iona*, Florida Gulf Coast*, Montana*, SF Austin* 
• #16 seeds:  William & Mary*, Hawaii*, play-in: Robert Morris* / Radford*, play-in: Jackson State* / North Carolina Central*  
• First Four Out:  Missouri, Western Kentucky, Georgia, Maryland

   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk

The fringe teams have been fading so I moved Middle Tennessee State up to the 11 line and moved the second play-in game down to the 12 line.  Georgia and Missouri move out of the field, Syracuse and Washington move in (that win at Kansas is a huge resume booster for the Huskies).   

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

#1 Seeds Remain Unchanged in Latest Projection

My four projected #1 seeds are holding steady. Biggest mover this week was taking Michigan State up to a #5 seed from a #8.  They did destroy Indiana over the weekend but their 18-3 record is still fairly soft (#29 RPI, #102 SoS, 1 win against the RPI top 50). 

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

• #1 seeds:  Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Virginia
• #2 seeds:  Xavier, North Carolina, Kansas, Clemson
• #3 seeds:  Oklahoma, Auburn,  Tennessee, West Virginia
• #4 seeds:  Ohio State, TCU, Texas Tech, Florida
• #5 seeds:  Cincinnati, Michigan State,  Arizona, Seton Hall
• #6 seeds:  Kentucky, Rhode Island, Louisville, Nevada
• #7 seeds:   Miami (FL), Wichita State, Arizona State,  Creighton
• #8 seeds:  Florida State, Providence, Michigan, Butler
• #9 seeds:  Texas A&M, Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas
• #10 seeds:  Texas, Saint Mary's, Marquette, Gonzaga
• #11 seeds:  SMU, Houston, play-in: Boise State / USC , play-in: Georgia / Kansas State
• #12 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, New Mexico State*, Louisiana-Lafayette*, East Tennessee State*
• #13 seeds:  Northern Kentucky*, Murray State*, Vermont*, South Dakota State*
• #14 seeds:  Bucknell*, Buffalo*, Loyola-Chicago*, Penn*
• #15 seeds:  Iona*, Florida Gulf Coast*, Montana*, SF Austin* 
• #16 seeds:  UC Davis*, William & Mary*,  play-in: Robert Morris* / Radford*, play-in: Jackson State* / North Carolina Central*  
• First Four Out:  Notre Dame, Maryland, Syracuse, UCLA

   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk

Kansas State surges into the field after yet another quality win - this time against TCU.  SMU, Georgia and Houston all sitting at 4 wins versus the RPI top 50.  Boise State hanging in there with a 15-4 record despite no wins against the RPI top 50.  UCLA on a three game losing streak and fading fast. 

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

2018 Road to the Final Four

Now that conference play is well underway, I figured it was time to post my first bracket of the season.  Lots of parity this season.  The Big 10 has been a Big Disappointment.  The Big 12 has been one big cage match.  But does the Big East end up sending even more teams than the Big 12?  We shall see how things play out over the coming weeks.  Lots of season left to make a run at a tournament bid.

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

• #1 seeds:  Villanova, Duke, Virginia, Purdue
• #2 seeds:  North Carolina, Xavier, Kansas, Oklahoma
• #3 seeds:  Clemson,  Seton Hall, Texas Tech, West Virginia
• #4 seeds:  Kentucky, Ohio State, Auburn, Creighton
• #5 seeds:  Tennessee, TCU, Cincinnati, Arizona
• #6 seeds:  Rhode Island, Louisville, Arizona State, Miami (FL)
• #7 seeds:  Wichita State, Michigan, Nevada, Florida
• #8 seeds:  Michigan State, Missouri, Florida State, Gonzaga
• #9 seeds:  Texas A&M, Butler, Texas, Marquette
• #10 seeds:  Saint Mary's, SMU, Alabama, Arkansas
• #11 seeds:  Notre Dame, Syracuse, play-in: Providence / Georgia, play-in: Houston / Boise State  
• #12 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, New Mexico State*, LA Lafayette*, East Tennessee State*
• #13 seeds:  Northern Kentucky*, Murray State*, Vermont*, South Dakota State*
• #14 seeds:  Bucknell*, Buffalo*, Loyola-Chicago*, Penn*
• #15 seeds:  Iona*, Florida Gulf Coast*, Montana*, SF Austin*
• #16 seeds:  UC Davis*, William & Mary*,  play-in: Robert Morris* / Radford*, play-in: Jackson State* / North Carolina Central*  
• First Four Out:  UCLA, USC, Maryland, Kansas State

   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk

As it stands, my Last Four In are Providence, Georgia, Houston and Boise State.  Arguments can be made for all of my First Four Out, but they are not without their warts. UCLA is 2-3 against the RPI top 50, USC is 1-3 against the RPI top 50, Maryland is 1-6 against the RPI top 50 and Kansas State is 1-4 against the RPI top 50 with an RPI of 70 (although they just pounded Oklahoma). 

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/