• Quadrant 1: games at home vs teams ranked 1-30 in the RPI, neutral vs 1-50, road vs 1-75
• Quadrant 2: home vs 31-75, neutral vs 51-100, road vs 76-135
• Quadrant 3: home vs 76-160, neutral vs 101-200, road vs 136-240
• Quadrant 4: home vs 161-plus, neutral vs 201-plus, Road vs 241-plus
Risers since my last projection include Kentucky (4-7 in Quadrant 1 games despite recent losing streak) and Gonzaga (RPI is terrible but 25-4 overall and 3-2 in Q1 games). Fallers include Oklahoma and Texas A&M (plenty of Q1 wins for both but has a team from a major conference ever received an at-large bid with a conference record 3 games below .500)?
Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:
#1 seeds: Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds: North Carolina, Auburn, Purdue, Cincinnati
#3 seeds: Duke, Michigan State, Texas Tech, Tennessee
#4 seeds: Arizona, Clemson , Wichita State, Houston
#5 seeds: Nevada, Ohio State, West Virginia, Gonzaga
#6 seeds: Kentucky, TCU, Rhode Island, Miami (FL)
#7 seeds: Michigan, Arizona State , Alabama, Seton Hall
#8 seeds: Saint Mary's, Arkansas, Florida State, Providence
#9 seeds: Butler, Creighton, Missouri, Florida
#10 seeds: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, St. Bonaventure, VA Tech
#11 seeds: Washington, NC State, Middle Tennessee State*, play-in: Texas / UCLA
#12 seeds: Buffalo*, Vermont*, New Mexico State*, play-in: Baylor / Kansas State
#13 seeds: Louisiana-Lafayette*, Loyola-Chicago*, East Tennessee State*, Rider*
#14 seeds: Belmont*, Bucknell*, College of Charleston*, UC Santa Barbara*
#15 seeds: Montana*, Northern Kentucky*, Wagner*, South Dakota*
#16 seeds: Florida Gulf Coast*, Winthrop*, play-in: SF Austin* / Penn*, play-in: Southern* / Savannah State*
First Five Out: Syracuse, USC, Louisville, Marquette, Georgia
Bubble Talk
Moved MTSU up to the 11 line - resume is looking better with 22-5 overall record and 2-3 in Q1 games. Syracuse, USC and Louisville out with poor Q1 records.
Bracket Matrix
Check this site out. Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
