Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Less than 3 weeks to Selection Sunday

As a reminder, the new selection committee lingo groups wins into quadrants and they break down as follows:  

• Quadrant 1: games at home vs teams ranked 1-30 in the RPI, neutral vs 1-50, road vs 1-75

• Quadrant 2: home vs 31-75, neutral vs 51-100, road vs 76-135

• Quadrant 3: home vs 76-160, neutral vs 101-200, road vs 136-240

• Quadrant 4: home vs 161-plus, neutral vs 201-plus, Road vs 241-plus

Risers since my last projection include Kentucky (4-7 in Quadrant 1 games despite recent losing streak) and Gonzaga (RPI is terrible but 25-4 overall and 3-2 in Q1 games).  Fallers include Oklahoma and Texas A&M (plenty of Q1 wins for both but has a team from a major conference ever received an at-large bid with a conference record 3 games below .500)?

My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  North Carolina, Auburn, Purdue, Cincinnati
#3 seeds:  Duke,  Michigan State, Texas Tech, Tennessee
#4 seeds:  Arizona, Clemson , Wichita State, Houston
#5 seeds:  Nevada, Ohio State, West Virginia, Gonzaga
#6 seeds:  Kentucky, TCU, Rhode Island, Miami (FL)
#7 seeds:  Michigan, Arizona State , Alabama, Seton Hall
#8 seeds:  Saint Mary's, Arkansas, Florida State, Providence
#9 seeds:   Butler, Creighton, Missouri, Florida
#10 seeds:  Oklahoma, Texas A&M, St. Bonaventure, VA Tech 
#11 seeds:  Washington,  NC State, Middle Tennessee State*, play-in:  Texas / UCLA
#12 seeds:  Buffalo*, Vermont*, New Mexico State*, play-in: Baylor / Kansas State
#13 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Loyola-Chicago*, East Tennessee State*, Rider*
#14 seeds:  Belmont*, Bucknell*, College of Charleston*, UC Santa Barbara*
#15 seeds:  Montana*, Northern Kentucky*, Wagner*, South Dakota*
#16 seeds:  Florida Gulf Coast*, Winthrop*, play-in:  SF Austin* / Penn*, play-in: Southern* / Savannah State*  
First Five Out:   Syracuse, USC, Louisville, Marquette, Georgia

* presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk
Moved MTSU up to the 11 line - resume is looking better with 22-5 overall record and 2-3 in Q1 games.  Syracuse, USC and Louisville out with poor Q1 records.       

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.