Monday, March 5, 2018

Countdown to Selection Sunday

As a reminder, the new selection committee lingo groups wins into quadrants and they break down as follows:  

• Quadrant 1: games at home vs teams ranked 1-30 in the RPI, neutral vs 1-50, road vs 1-75

• Quadrant 2: home vs 31-75, neutral vs 51-100, road vs 76-135

• Quadrant 3: home vs 76-160, neutral vs 101-200, road vs 136-240

• Quadrant 4: home vs 161-plus, neutral vs 201-plus, Road vs 241-plus

Risers since my last projection include Big Ten Tournament champs Michigan (6-5 in Quadrant 1 games) and Middle Tennessee State (24-6 overall, 3-3 in Q1 games).  Fallers include Butler and Louisville (each 19-12 overall, 3-10 in Q1 games).  New names starting to show up as conference champions crowned.

My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, Auburn
#3 seeds:  Michigan,  Michigan State, Cincinnati, Tennessee
#4 seeds:  Wichita State, Clemson, Arizona, Houston
#5 seeds:  Texas Tech, Ohio State, Miami (FL), West Virginia
#6 seeds:  Gonzaga, Nevada, Arkansas, Seton Hall
#7 seeds:  Texas A&M, Kentucky, TCU, Florida
#8 seeds:  Missouri, Creighton, Rhode Island, USC
#9 seeds:   Saint Mary's, Florida State, Oklahoma, VA Tech 
#10 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, St. Bonaventure, UCLA, Syracuse
#11 seeds:  Butler, Louisville, NC State, play-in:  Arizona State / Providence
#12 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo*, New Mexico State*, play-in:  Texas / Kansas State
#13 seeds:  Murray State, South Dakota State*, College of Charleston*, Louisiana-Lafayette* 
#14 seeds:  Vermont*, Rider*, Bucknell*, East Tennessee State* 
#15 seeds:  Montana*, Wagner*, Wright State*, UC Santa Barbara* 
#16 seeds:  Lipscomb, Harvard*, play-in:  Radford / SF Austin*, play-in: Hampton* / Prairie View*  
First Five Out:   Washington, Baylor, Marquette, Alabama, Boise State

* presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk
Washington, Baylor and Alabama (17-14 overall) fall out.         

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.