New Selection Committee Terminology

The NCAA Top 16 reveal over the weekend raised some eyebrows and shined a light on an announcement the selection committee quietly made in December.  The selection committee will no longer use top 50 RPI, top 100, 200 and 201+ as dividing categories.  Instead, the new terminology will be Quadrants 1, 2, 3 and 4. The decision is to get away from treating every team the same if the game was on the road, neutral or at home based on their power rating. Now the road/neutral games will matter more.  Here are the definitions of those categories:
• Quadrant 1: games at home vs teams ranked 1-30 in the RPI, neutral vs 1-50, road vs 1-75
• Quadrant 2: home vs 31-75, neutral vs 51-100, road vs 76-135
• Quadrant 3: home vs 76-160, neutral vs 101-200, road vs 136-240
• Quadrant 4: home vs 161-plus, neutral vs 201-plus, Road vs 241-plus

So now if a team is able to beat the #1 team in the RPI at home and the #75 team in the RPI on the road, it will have two Quadrant 1 wins.  Makes perfect sense.  The critics, including Jay Bilas, will tell you they are basically taking a trash RPI number and reformatting it into another trash number.   Garbage in, garbage out.  Hard to argue with that because most agree RPI is not a great indicator of relative value in the first place. But, that being said, it is what it is so this year we get to talk about Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 4 losses as “good wins” and “bad losses”.

Below is a link to the new Team Sheets:
https://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/images/2017/12/04/team_sheet_guide1.pdf

Given my new perspective, I moved KU up to the 1 line with the most Quadrant 1 wins in the nation (9) against just 3 losses.  Interesting decisions on the 4 line - Wichita State is 2-3 in Quadrant 1 games, TAMU is 5-6.  Houston up to the 6 line with a great win over Cincy and a 4-2 record in Quadrant 1 games.

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

• #1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
• #2 seeds:  Auburn, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Texas Tech 
• #3 seeds:  Purdue, Michigan State, Duke,  Clemson  
• #4 seeds:  Arizona, Tennessee, Wichita State, Texas A&M
• #5 seeds:  Nevada, Rhode Island, Ohio State,  Oklahoma
• #6 seeds:  Houston, Missouri, West Virginia, Seton Hall
• #7 seeds:  Creighton, Alabama, Gonzaga, Miami (FL)
• #8 seeds:  Providence, TCU, Florida State, Arkansas
• #9 seeds:  Kentucky, Saint Mary's, Arizona State, Michigan
• #10 seeds:  Washington, Butler,  Florida, Louisville
• #11 seeds:  NC State, Kansas State, play-in: VA Tech / Texas, play-in: UCLA / St. Bonaventure
• #12 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, Buffalo*, Vermont*, New Mexico State*  
• #13 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Loyola-Chicago*, East Tennessee State*, Rider*
• #14 seeds:  Belmont*, Bucknell*, College of Charleston*, UC Santa Barbara*
• #15 seeds:  Montana*, Northern Kentucky*, Wagner*, South Dakota*
• #16 seeds:  Florida Gulf Coast*, Winthrop*, play-in:  SF Austin* / Penn*, play-in: Arkansas-Pine Bluff* / Savannah State*  
• First Six Out:   USC, Syracuse, Temple, Baylor, Utah, Marquette

   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk

The 11 line is dominated by flawed teams with a healthy number of Quadrant 1 wins including NC State, Kansas State, VA Tech, Texas and St. Bonny.  USC and Syracuse both on the outside looking in with poor Quadrant 1 records.       

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/