Sunday, March 11, 2018

Final Projection

Davidson elbows into the field by winning the A10.  Going to be a crazy tournament!  Risers include Arizona, Houston, West Virginia and Providence.    

Bubble Talk
The bubble got smaller with the Davidson win. That forces two automatic qualifiers up to the 11 line.  Is Loyola-Chicago one of the two?  They shouldn't be - they have a lofty RPI of 22 but one win over an RPI top 50 team all season.  I think eight teams are vying for the final three spots.  I still have Texas, Kansas State and Oklahoma in.  I have Syracuse out (4-8 Quad 1 record, best wins against Miami, Clemson and Louisville), but they have a decent case.  Followed by Marquette (#57 RPI), Middle Tennessee State (only win over a tournament team is Murray State), Louisville (0-11 vs. RPI top 50) and ASU (#66 RPI).  

My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  Duke, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Purdue
#3 seeds:  Michigan,  Michigan State, Tennessee, Auburn
#4 seeds:  Arizona, Wichita State, Houston, West Virginia
#5 seeds:  Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Clemson, Kentucky
#6 seeds:  Ohio State, Miami (FL), Arkansas, Texas A&M
#7 seeds:  Florida, Nevada, Rhode Island, Providence
#8 seeds:  TCU, Seton Hall, Missouri, Alabama
#9 seeds:  VA Tech, NC State, Butler, Florida State
#10 seeds:  St. Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, UCLA, USC
#11 seeds:  San Diego State, Davidson, play-in: Creighton / Texas,  play-in:  Kansas State / Oklahoma
#12 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Marshall
#13 seeds:  College of Charleston, UNC Greensboro, Buffalo, Murray State
#14 seeds:  Wright State, Bucknell, Montana, UMBC  
#15 seeds:  Georgia State, SF Austin, Lipscomb, Iona  
#16 seeds:  CS Fullerton, Penn, play-in:  Radford / LIU Brooklyn, play-in: Texas Southern / NC Central  
First Five Out:   Syracuse, Marquette, Middle Tennessee State, Louisville, Arizona State

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.