Thursday, February 14, 2019

Conference Tournaments Begin in 18 Days

Tennessee returns to the top line.  Again, strictly formulaic.  As of today, the model projects the top 50 seeds (listed below) as making the tournament whether they win their conference or not.  The bottom 18 are automatic qualifiers that won't make it unless they win their respective conferences.  

Bubble Talk
The last two at-large bids would go to San Francisco and Temple.  And because of the way the numbers fall, two of the last four would would play-in on the 11 line and two would play-in on the 12 line.  The model indicates Wofford, Lipscomb and New Mexico State would all get in as at-larges regardless of whether they stumble in their conferences.  UCF, Clemson and Toledo moving up. San Fran finally cracks the field. Minnesota hanging on by a thread after getting jobbed by the officials in Lincoln last night.  

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:
#1 seeds: Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, Tennessee
#2 seeds: Kansas, North Carolina, Michigan, Purdue
#3 seeds: Michigan State, Kentucky, Houston, LSU
#4 seeds:  Texas Tech, Villanova, Nevada, Louisville
#5 seeds:  Wisconsin, Kansas State, Maryland, Iowa State
#6 seeds:  Buffalo, Florida State, VA Tech, Marquette
#7 seeds:  Mississippi State, Cincy, Washington, Iowa
#8 seeds:  TCU, Auburn, Mississippi State, Wofford
#9 seeds:  Texas, VCU, Oklahoma, Ohio State
#10 seeds:  Alabama, UCF, Baylor, Clemson
#11 seeds:  Toledo, Syracuse, St. John's, play-in: Utah State / Minnesota
#12 seeds:  New Mexico State, Lipscomb, Yale, play-in: San Francisco / Temple
#13 seeds:  Davidson, Belmont, Hofstra, Vermont
#14 seeds:  UC Irvine, Radford, Old Dominion, Bucknell
#15 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, Northern Kentucky, Texas State, Montana
#16 seeds:  South Dakota State, Sam Houston State, play-in:  St. Francis (PA) / Prairie View, play-in:  Norfolk State / Quinnipiac

First 4 Out:  Saint Mary's, Seton Hall, Butler, Florida


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Friday, February 8, 2019

Volunteers Slip to the 2 Line

As the major conferences slug it out, strength of schedule improves more for some than others.  Surprisingly, Tennessee falls to the 2 line despite a 17 game win streak.  Again, strictly formulaic.  As of today, the model projects the top 48 seeds (listed below) as making the tournament whether they win their conference or not.  The bottom 20 are automatic qualifiers that won't make it unless they win their respective conferences.  

Bubble Talk
The last two at-large bids would go to newcomers Creighton and Temple.  And because of the way the numbers fall, the last four would all play-in on the 12 line.  The model indicates both Wofford and Lipscomb would get in as at-larges regardless of whether they stumble in their conferences.  Toledo comes out of nowhere to join the field.  San Francisco, Indiana, Saint Mary's and Arkansas are the first four out.  Arizona State, Nebraska, Florida, Butler, Seton Hall, wherefore art thou?

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:
#1 seeds: Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, North Carolina
#2 seeds: Michigan, Tennessee, Kansas, Kentucky
#3 seeds: Michigan State, Purdue, Houston, Nevada
#4 seeds:  Louisville, Villanova, Iowa State, Wisconsin
#5 seeds:  LSU, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Texas Tech
#6 seeds:  Maryland, Buffalo, Washington, Auburn
#7 seeds:  Mississippi State, Marquette, Kansas State, Iowa
#8 seeds:  Cincy, TCU, Oklahoma, Texas
#9 seeds:  Wofford, VCU, St. John's, Baylor
#10 seeds:  Syracuse, Lipscomb, Ohio State, Alabama
#11 seeds:  Utah State, Clemson, Minnesota, Mississippi 
#12 seeds:  play-in: Toledo / UCF, play-in: Creighton / Temple, Davidson, Yale
#13 seeds:  Belmont, Hofstra, New Mexico State, Vermont
#14 seeds:  UC Irvine, Radford, Old Dominion, Northern Kentucky
#15 seeds:  Montana, Bucknell, Loyola-Chicago, Texas State
#16 seeds:  South Dakota State, Rider, play-in:  Sam Houston State / Prairie View, play-in:  Norfolk State / Robert Morris

First 4 Out:  San Francisco, Indiana, Saint Mary's, Arkansas


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Saturday, February 2, 2019

Happy Groundhog Day

Hard to believe it is already February.  Remember, Eye is taking a bit of a different approach this season by using a model to project the teams and seeds.  As of today, the model projects the top 48 seeds (listed below) as making the tournament whether they win their conference or not.  The bottom 20 are automatic qualifiers that won't make it unless they win their respective conferences.  

Bubble Talk
The last two at large bids would go to Clemson and Utah State.  And because of the way the numbers fall, the last four in would all play-in on the 12 line.  The model indicates both Wofford and Lipscomb would get in as at-larges regardless of whether they stumble in their conferences.  San Francisco, Temple, Creighton, Seton Hall are the first four out.  But my gut tells me there will be a spot open with Nebraska on its way out very soon.

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:
#1 seeds:  Duke, Virginia, Michigan State, Tennessee
#2 seeds: Michigan, Purdue, North Carolina, Gonzaga
#3 seeds:  Kansas, Kentucky, Houston, Nevada
#4 seeds:  Louisville, LSU, Villanova, Wisconsin
#5 seeds:  Iowa State, Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, Marquette
#6 seeds:  Maryland, Buffalo, TCU, Florida State
#7 seeds:  Auburn, Oklahoma, Cincy, Iowa
#8 seeds:  Mississippi State, Washington, Kansas State, Texas
#9 seeds:  Alabama, Syracuse, Wofford, Ohio State
#10 seeds:  VCU, St. John's, Minnesota, UCF
#11 seeds:  Mississippi, Baylor, Lipscomb, Arizona State
#12 seeds:  play-in: Florida / Nebraska, play-in: Clemson / Utah State, Davidson, Hofstra
#13 seeds:  Belmont, New Mexico State, Vermont, Yale
#14 seeds:  Old Dominion, Texas State, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky
#15 seeds:  Montana, Radford, UC Irvine, Loyola-Chicago
#16 seeds:  Lehigh, Abilene Christian, play-in: Rider / Robert Morris, play-in: Prairie View / Norfolk State

First 4 Out:  San Francisco, Temple, Creighton, Seton Hall


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/