Sunday, March 11, 2018

Final Projection

Davidson elbows into the field by winning the A10.  Going to be a crazy tournament!  Risers include Arizona, Houston, West Virginia and Providence.    


Bubble Talk
The bubble got smaller with the Davidson win. That forces two automatic qualifiers up to the 11 line.  Is Loyola-Chicago one of the two?  They shouldn't be - they have a lofty RPI of 22 but one win over an RPI top 50 team all season.  I think eight teams are vying for the final three spots.  I still have Texas, Kansas State and Oklahoma in.  I have Syracuse out (4-8 Quad 1 record, best wins against Miami, Clemson and Louisville), but they have a decent case.  Followed by Marquette (#57 RPI), Middle Tennessee State (only win over a tournament team is Murray State), Louisville (0-11 vs. RPI top 50) and ASU (#66 RPI).  


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  Duke, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Purdue
#3 seeds:  Michigan,  Michigan State, Tennessee, Auburn
#4 seeds:  Arizona, Wichita State, Houston, West Virginia
#5 seeds:  Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Clemson, Kentucky
#6 seeds:  Ohio State, Miami (FL), Arkansas, Texas A&M
#7 seeds:  Florida, Nevada, Rhode Island, Providence
#8 seeds:  TCU, Seton Hall, Missouri, Alabama
#9 seeds:  VA Tech, NC State, Butler, Florida State
#10 seeds:  St. Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, UCLA, USC
#11 seeds:  San Diego State, Davidson, play-in: Creighton / Texas,  play-in:  Kansas State / Oklahoma
#12 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Marshall
#13 seeds:  College of Charleston, UNC Greensboro, Buffalo, Murray State
#14 seeds:  Wright State, Bucknell, Montana, UMBC  
#15 seeds:  Georgia State, SF Austin, Lipscomb, Iona  
#16 seeds:  CS Fullerton, Penn, play-in:  Radford / LIU Brooklyn, play-in: Texas Southern / NC Central  
First Five Out:   Syracuse, Marquette, Middle Tennessee State, Louisville, Arizona State


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Saturday, March 10, 2018

Calm Before the Storm

Conference tournaments wrapping up.  Nevada drops a bomb on the field by losing in the MWC tournament.  They will still get in as an at-large, but now the MWC tournament winner needs a spot in the field as well.  Purdue up, Auburn down.  Kentucky up, Nevada down.  Providence up, UCLA down.  Alabama up, Butler down.  San Diego State elbows into the field as the presumed MWC winner, MTSU out.  


Bubble Talk
Nobody else on the bubble can play their way in with Oregon bowing out.  I think Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Syracuse are in.  Middle Tennessee State, Louisville, Washington, ASU and Marquette are out.  


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  Duke, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Purdue
#3 seeds:  Auburn, Michigan,  Michigan State, Tennessee
#4 seeds:  Wichita State, Texas Tech, Gonzaga,  Clemson
#5 seeds:  Houston, Arizona, West Virginia, Ohio State
#6 seeds:  Miami (FL), Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky 
#7 seeds:  Seton Hall, Nevada, Texas A&M, TCU
#8 seeds:  Missouri, Creighton, Rhode Island, Providence
#9 seeds:  USC, UCLA, Florida State, Alabama
#10 seeds:  St. Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, VA Tech, NC State
#11 seeds:  Butler, San Diego State*,  play-in: Texas / Kansas State,  play-in:  Oklahoma / Syracuse
#12 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State*, Western Kentucky*, South Dakota State
#13 seeds:   Buffalo*, Murray State, College of Charleston, UNC Greensboro
#14 seeds:  Vermont*, Louisiana-Lafayette*, Bucknell, Montana* 
#15 seeds:  Wright State, CS Fullerton*, Iona, Lipscomb 
#16 seeds:  Harvard*, Radford, play-in:  SF Austin* / LIU Brooklyn, play-in: Hampton* / Arkansas-Pine Bluff*  
First Five Out:   Middle Tennessee State, Louisville, Washington, Arizona State, Marquette

* presumed automatic qualifiers


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Friday, March 9, 2018

Final Weekend Upon Us

Cincy moves up to the 2 line in place of Purdue.  


Bubble Talk
Focusing on 12 teams that I truly believe are on the bubble.  Given the numbers, 6 are in and 6 are out.  This is my current rank order:  Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Alabama, Syracuse, Middle Tennessee State, Louisville, Washington, ASU, Marquette, Oregon and Baylor.  Kansas State picks up a nice win against TCU yesterday to bolster its resume.  Alabama with a nice win against TAMU to get to a very solid 6-6 in Quadrant 1 games.  Syracuse with an ugly 3-8 record in Q1 games but a win against Louisville helps.  MTSU with a very shaky loss yesterday.  Can they get an at-large?  3-3 in Q1 games but best wins this season are against Old Dominion, Murray State and Western Kentucky (twice).  Louisville 0-11 vs. RPI top 50.  People still talking ASU but Washington has a better argument (20-12 overall vs 20-11 for ASU, 3-5 in Q1 vs. 3-4 for ASU, but Washington beat ASU head to head and has a better signature win at Kansas).  Oregon is the only team on the wrong side of the bubble that can continue to make noise in its conference tournament. 


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  Duke, North Carolina, Auburn, Cincinnati
#3 seeds:  Purdue, Michigan,  Michigan State, Tennessee
#4 seeds:  Wichita State, Texas Tech, Gonzaga,  Clemson
#5 seeds:  Houston, Arizona, West Virginia, Ohio State
#6 seeds:  Miami (FL), Nevada, Arkansas, Florida 
#7 seeds:  Seton Hall, Kentucky, Texas A&M, TCU
#8 seeds:  Missouri, Creighton, Rhode Island, UCLA
#9 seeds:  USC, Florida State, Providence, Butler
#10 seeds:  St. Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, VA Tech, NC State
#11 seeds:  Texas, Kansas State, play-in:  Oklahoma / Alabama, play-in:  Syracuse  / Middle Tennessee State
#12 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State*, Western Kentucky*, South Dakota State
#13 seeds:   Buffalo*, Murray State, College of Charleston, UNC Greensboro
#14 seeds:  Vermont*, Louisiana-Lafayette*, Bucknell, Montana* 
#15 seeds:  Wright State, UC Santa Barbara*, Iona, Lipscomb 
#16 seeds:  Harvard*, Radford, play-in:  SF Austin* / LIU Brooklyn, play-in: Hampton* / Prairie View*  
First Six Out:   Louisville, Washington, Arizona State, Marquette, Oregon, Baylor

* presumed automatic qualifiers


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Thursday, March 8, 2018

Home Stretch

Bucknell, welcome to The Dance.  


Bubble Talk
Focusing on 10 teams that I truly believe are on the bubble.  Given the numbers, 7 are in and 3 are out.  This is my current rank order:  Providence, Texas, Oklahoma, Washington, ASU, Kansas State, Syracuse, Louisville, Marquette, Baylor.


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, Auburn
#3 seeds:  Michigan,  Michigan State, Cincinnati, Tennessee
#4 seeds:  Wichita State, Clemson, Arizona, Gonzaga
#5 seeds:  Houston, Texas Tech, Miami (FL), West Virginia
#6 seeds:  Ohio State, Nevada, Florida, Seton Hall 
#7 seeds:  Arkansas, Texas A&M, Kentucky, TCU
#8 seeds:  Missouri, Creighton, Rhode Island, USC
#9 seeds:  Florida State, VA Tech, NC State , UCLA
#10 seeds:  St. Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, Butler, Providence
#11 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, Texas, Oklahoma, play-in:  Washington / Arizona State
#12 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo*, New Mexico State*, play-in:  Kansas State / Syracuse
#13 seeds:  South Dakota State, Murray State, College of Charleston, UNC Greensboro
#14 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Vermont*, Bucknell, Montana* 
#15 seeds:  Wright State, UC Santa Barbara*, Iona, Lipscomb 
#16 seeds:  Harvard*, Radford, play-in:  SF Austin* / LIU Brooklyn, play-in: Hampton* / Prairie View*  
First Five Out:  Louisville, Marquette, Baylor, Alabama, Boise State

* presumed automatic qualifiers


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Conference Champions Joining the Dance

Lots of obscure names joining the party including LIU Brooklyn, Wright State, Radford and Lipscomb.  Not a lot of opportunities left for mid-majors to steal bids now that Gonzaga is in the clear.  Middle Tennessee State would likely still get in as an at-large if they cough up the CUSA title, but that's about it.  Gonzaga is a riser, Saint Mary's is a faller.  


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, Auburn
#3 seeds:  Michigan,  Michigan State, Cincinnati, Tennessee
#4 seeds:  Wichita State, Clemson, Arizona, Gonzaga
#5 seeds:  Houston, Texas Tech, Miami (FL), West Virginia
#6 seeds:  Ohio State, Nevada, Arkansas, Seton Hall
#7 seeds:  Texas A&M, Kentucky, TCU, Florida
#8 seeds:  Missouri, Creighton, Rhode Island, USC
#9 seeds:  Florida State, Oklahoma, VA Tech, Saint Mary's
#10 seeds:  NC State, St. Bonaventure, UCLA, Syracuse
#11 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, Butler, Louisville, play-in:  Arizona State / Providence
#12 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo*, New Mexico State*, play-in:  Texas / Kansas State
#13 seeds:  South Dakota State, Murray State, College of Charleston, UNC Greensboro
#14 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Vermont*, Bucknell*, Montana* 
#15 seeds:  Wright State, UC Santa Barbara*, Iona, Lipscomb 
#16 seeds:  Harvard*, Radford, play-in:  SF Austin* / LIU Brooklyn, play-in: Hampton* / Prairie View*  
First Five Out:   Washington, Baylor, Marquette, Alabama, Boise State

* presumed automatic qualifiers


Bubble Talk
Who is going to step up in the conference tournaments?         


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Monday, March 5, 2018

Countdown to Selection Sunday

As a reminder, the new selection committee lingo groups wins into quadrants and they break down as follows:  

• Quadrant 1: games at home vs teams ranked 1-30 in the RPI, neutral vs 1-50, road vs 1-75

• Quadrant 2: home vs 31-75, neutral vs 51-100, road vs 76-135

• Quadrant 3: home vs 76-160, neutral vs 101-200, road vs 136-240

• Quadrant 4: home vs 161-plus, neutral vs 201-plus, Road vs 241-plus

Risers since my last projection include Big Ten Tournament champs Michigan (6-5 in Quadrant 1 games) and Middle Tennessee State (24-6 overall, 3-3 in Q1 games).  Fallers include Butler and Louisville (each 19-12 overall, 3-10 in Q1 games).  New names starting to show up as conference champions crowned.


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  Duke, North Carolina, Purdue, Auburn
#3 seeds:  Michigan,  Michigan State, Cincinnati, Tennessee
#4 seeds:  Wichita State, Clemson, Arizona, Houston
#5 seeds:  Texas Tech, Ohio State, Miami (FL), West Virginia
#6 seeds:  Gonzaga, Nevada, Arkansas, Seton Hall
#7 seeds:  Texas A&M, Kentucky, TCU, Florida
#8 seeds:  Missouri, Creighton, Rhode Island, USC
#9 seeds:   Saint Mary's, Florida State, Oklahoma, VA Tech 
#10 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, St. Bonaventure, UCLA, Syracuse
#11 seeds:  Butler, Louisville, NC State, play-in:  Arizona State / Providence
#12 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, Buffalo*, New Mexico State*, play-in:  Texas / Kansas State
#13 seeds:  Murray State, South Dakota State*, College of Charleston*, Louisiana-Lafayette* 
#14 seeds:  Vermont*, Rider*, Bucknell*, East Tennessee State* 
#15 seeds:  Montana*, Wagner*, Wright State*, UC Santa Barbara* 
#16 seeds:  Lipscomb, Harvard*, play-in:  Radford / SF Austin*, play-in: Hampton* / Prairie View*  
First Five Out:   Washington, Baylor, Marquette, Alabama, Boise State


* presumed automatic qualifiers


Bubble Talk
Washington, Baylor and Alabama (17-14 overall) fall out.         


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Less than 3 weeks to Selection Sunday

As a reminder, the new selection committee lingo groups wins into quadrants and they break down as follows:  

• Quadrant 1: games at home vs teams ranked 1-30 in the RPI, neutral vs 1-50, road vs 1-75

• Quadrant 2: home vs 31-75, neutral vs 51-100, road vs 76-135

• Quadrant 3: home vs 76-160, neutral vs 101-200, road vs 136-240

• Quadrant 4: home vs 161-plus, neutral vs 201-plus, Road vs 241-plus

Risers since my last projection include Kentucky (4-7 in Quadrant 1 games despite recent losing streak) and Gonzaga (RPI is terrible but 25-4 overall and 3-2 in Q1 games).  Fallers include Oklahoma and Texas A&M (plenty of Q1 wins for both but has a team from a major conference ever received an at-large bid with a conference record 3 games below .500)?


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  North Carolina, Auburn, Purdue, Cincinnati
#3 seeds:  Duke,  Michigan State, Texas Tech, Tennessee
#4 seeds:  Arizona, Clemson , Wichita State, Houston
#5 seeds:  Nevada, Ohio State, West Virginia, Gonzaga
#6 seeds:  Kentucky, TCU, Rhode Island, Miami (FL)
#7 seeds:  Michigan, Arizona State , Alabama, Seton Hall
#8 seeds:  Saint Mary's, Arkansas, Florida State, Providence
#9 seeds:   Butler, Creighton, Missouri, Florida
#10 seeds:  Oklahoma, Texas A&M, St. Bonaventure, VA Tech 
#11 seeds:  Washington,  NC State, Middle Tennessee State*, play-in:  Texas / UCLA
#12 seeds:  Buffalo*, Vermont*, New Mexico State*, play-in: Baylor / Kansas State
#13 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Loyola-Chicago*, East Tennessee State*, Rider*
#14 seeds:  Belmont*, Bucknell*, College of Charleston*, UC Santa Barbara*
#15 seeds:  Montana*, Northern Kentucky*, Wagner*, South Dakota*
#16 seeds:  Florida Gulf Coast*, Winthrop*, play-in:  SF Austin* / Penn*, play-in: Southern* / Savannah State*  
First Five Out:   Syracuse, USC, Louisville, Marquette, Georgia

* presumed automatic qualifiers


Bubble Talk
Moved MTSU up to the 11 line - resume is looking better with 22-5 overall record and 2-3 in Q1 games.  Syracuse, USC and Louisville out with poor Q1 records.       


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/