Sunday, March 17, 2019

Ready for Selection Sunday!

The Eye projection model, derived from the overall seed list released the last two years, is used to project the top 49 seeds below with one exception.  The model still indicates that Texas is in the field.  But with a 16-16 record, Texas doesn't pass the smell test, so Eye made the executive decision to substitute Mississippi into the last at-large slot.

Bubble Talk
A number of mid-majors with pretty good resumes, such as Saint Mary's and New Mexico State, push the at-large play-in games down to the 12 line.

Bracketology
#1 seeds:  Duke* Virginia Gonzaga North Carolina
#2 seeds:  Michigan State* Tennessee Kentucky  Michigan
#3 seeds:  Houston Kansas Florida State Purdue
#4 seeds:  Texas Tech Buffalo* LSU Auburn*
#5 seeds:  Villanova* Wisconsin Virginia Tech Kansas State
#6 seeds:  Wofford* Nevada Mississippi St. Iowa State*
#7 seeds:  Cincy* Louisville Maryland Marquette
#8 seeds:  VCU Utah State* UCF Saint Mary's*
#9 seeds:  Washington Syracuse Oklahoma New Mexico St.*
#10 seeds:  Florida Minnesota Oregon* Iowa
#11 seeds:  Clemson Seton Hall Belmont Baylor
#12 play-ins: TCU Arizona State Temple Mississippi
#12 seeds:  Murray State* Northeastern*
#13 seeds:  Yale* UC Irvine* Vermont* Liberty*
#14 seeds:  Georgia State* Old Dominion* Saint Louis* Montana*
#15 seeds:  Colgate* Northern KY* Ab. Christian* Gardner-Webb*
#16 seeds:  Prairie View* Bradley*
#16 play-ins: North Dakota St.* F. Dickinson* Iona* NC Central*
* automatic bid

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Selection Sunday Morning

Six championship games today.  The Eye projection model is derived from the overall seed list released the last two years.  The bottom 20 are automatic qualifiers that need to win or did win their respective conferences to secure a bid.

Bubble Talk
Oregon grabs the automatic bid.  Still have the last four in playing in on the 12 line.

Bracketology
#1 seeds:  Duke* Virginia Gonzaga North Carolina
#2 seeds:  Tennessee Michigan State  Kentucky  Michigan
#3 seeds:  Houston Kansas Florida State Purdue
#4 seeds:  Texas Tech Buffalo* LSU Auburn
#5 seeds:  Villanova* Wisconsin Virginia Tech Kansas State
#6 seeds:  Wofford* Nevada Mississippi St. Iowa State*
#7 seeds:  Cincy Louisville Maryland Marquette
#8 seeds:  VCU Utah State* UCF Saint Mary's*
#9 seeds:  Washington Syracuse Oklahoma New Mexico St.*
#10 seeds:  Florida Minnesota Oregon* Iowa
#11 seeds:  Clemson Seton Hall Belmont Baylor
#12 play-ins: TCU Texas Arizona State Temple
#12 seeds:  Murray State* Northeastern*
#13 seeds:  UC Irvine* Vermont* Liberty* Georgia State
#14 seeds:  Harvard Saint Louis Old Dominion* Montana*
#15 seeds:  Colgate* Northern KY* Ab. Christian* Gardner-Webb*
#16 seeds:  Prairie View* Bradley*
#16 play-ins: North Dakota St.* F. Dickinson* NC Central* Iona*
First 4 out:   UNC Greensboro Toledo Furman Mississippi
* automatic bid

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Saturday, March 16, 2019

Saturday

Duke takes over as the number one number one after an impressive win over North Carolina.  The Eye projection model is derived from the overall seed list released the last two years.  The bottom 19 are automatic qualifiers that need to win or did win their respective conferences to secure a bid.

Bubble Talk
Oregon surges into the field.  Davidson enters as well as the assumed automatic rep from the A10 after VCU goes down.  Mississippi and UNCG fall out.  Texas remains in for now.  Given the way the numbers fall, the last four in would all play-in on the 12 line.

Bracketology
#1 seeds:  Duke Virginia North Carolina Gonzaga
#2 seeds:  Kentucky  Tennessee Michigan State  Kansas
#3 seeds:  Houston Michigan Purdue Florida State
#4 seeds:  Texas Tech LSU Buffalo Kansas State
#5 seeds:  Wisconsin Virginia Tech Auburn Villanova
#6 seeds:  Wofford* Nevada Mississippi St. Cincy
#7 seeds:  Iowa State Louisville Maryland Marquette
#8 seeds:  VCU Utah State Washington UCF
#9 seeds:  Saint Mary's* Syracuse Oklahoma Minnesota
#10 seeds:  Florida Seton Hall Murray State* Iowa
#11 seeds:  Clemson TCU Belmont New Mexico St.
#12 seeds:  Texas Davidson
#12 play-ins: Oregon Baylor Arizona State Temple
#13 seeds:  Northeastern* Liberty* UC Irvine Georgia State
#14 seeds:  Harvard Vermont Old Dominion Montana
#15 seeds:  Colgate* Northern KY* Ab. Christian Gardner-Webb*
#16 seeds:  Prairie View Bradley*
#16 play-ins: North Dakota St.* F. Dickinson* Norfolk State Iona*
         
First 4 out:   UNC Greensboro Mississippi Toledo Creighton
* automatic bid

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Friday, March 15, 2019

Friday

So much for the credibility of the new NET rankings. Minnesota beats Penn State on a neutral court last night.  As a result, Penn State's NET ranking improves from 49 to 47, while Minnesota's declines from 56 to 57.  Hopefully the selection committee throws NET in the trash.  The Eye projection model is derived from the overall seed list released the last two years.  The bottom 18 are automatic qualifiers that need to win or did win their respective conferences to secure a bid.

Bubble Talk
Seton Hall in and, to my surprise, UNCG bubbles up as well.  Texas remains in at 16-16, buoyed by 5 quad 1 wins I guess.  Toledo and Creighton move out.  The conversation should also be over for St. John's, Indiana and NC State.  Ohio State still alive but needs another win.  Given the way the numbers fall, the last four in would all play-in on the 12 line.

Bracketology
#1 seeds:  Virginia Duke North Carolina Gonzaga
#2 seeds:  Michigan State  Kentucky  Tennessee Kansas
#3 seeds:  Houston Michigan Purdue Texas Tech
#4 seeds:  LSU Florida State Buffalo Kansas State
#5 seeds:  Wisconsin Virginia Tech Auburn Nevada
#6 seeds:  Wofford* Mississippi St. Villanova VCU
#7 seeds:  Louisville Maryland Iowa State Cincy
#8 seeds:  Marquette UCF Saint Mary's* Washington
#9 seeds:  Utah State Syracuse Oklahoma Iowa
#10 seeds:  Minnesota Murray State* Clemson Belmont
#11 seeds:  Arizona State TCU Texas Temple
#12 seeds:  Florida New Mexico St.
#12 play-ins: Seton Hall Baylor UNC Greensboro Mississippi
#13 seeds:  Northeastern* Liberty* Georgia State UC Irvine
#14 seeds:  Harvard Vermont Old Dominion Colgate*
#15 seeds:  Montana Northern KY* Sam Houston St. Gardner-Webb*
#16 seeds:  Prairie View Bradley*
#16 play-ins: F. Dickinson* Norfolk State North Dakota St.* Iona*
First 4 out:   Furman Alabama Toledo Creighton
* automatic bid


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Thursday, March 14, 2019

Major Conference Tournament Play About to Get Interesting

Colgate joins the field by winning the Patriot.  The Eye projection model is derived from the overall seed list released the last two years.  The bottom 18, including Colgate, are automatic qualifiers that need to win or did win their respective conferences to secure a bid.  FYI, the rankings most mentioned by the media can be wildly inconsistent.  Fun fact:  Nebraska has a #44 KenPom ranking, a #52 NET ranking and a #99 RPI ranking.

Bubble Talk
Wednesday was a tough day for both Clemson and Oklahoma.  Major conference tournaments continue today which will help sort out the bubble.  The model continues to show UNCG and Furman in the first four out but realistically, neither have a chance to get in with their seasons completed.  Given the way the numbers fall, the last four in would all play-in on the 12 line.  

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:
#1 seeds: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga
#2 seeds: Michigan State, Kentucky, Tennessee, Houston
#3 seeds: Kansas, Michigan, Texas Tech, Purdue
#4 seeds:  LSU, Florida State, Buffalo, Nevada
#5 seeds:  Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Wofford*
#6 seeds:  Auburn, Maryland, Villanova, Louisville
#7 seeds:  Mississippi State, VCU, Cincy, UCF
#8 seeds:  Marquette, Iowa State, Saint Mary's*, Utah State
#9 seeds:  Washington, Syracuse, Oklahoma, Baylor
#10 seeds:  Toledo, Minnesota, Clemson, Texas
#11 seeds:  Murray State*, New Mexico State, TCU, Belmont
#12 seeds: Temple, Iowa, play-in: Mississippi / Arizona State, play-in: Creighton / Florida
#13 seeds:  Northeastern*, Georgia State, Harvard, UC Irvine
#14 seeds:  Vermont, Liberty*, Old Dominion, Colgate*
#15 seeds:  Montana, Northern Kentucky*, Sam Houston State, Gardner-Webb*
#16 seeds:  Prairie View, Bradley*, play-in: Fairleigh Dickinson* / Norfolk State, play-in: North Dakota State* / Iona*

First 4 out:  Seton Hall, UNCG, Furman, Davidson

* automatic bid


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Gonzaga Falls Hard, Saint Mary's Bolsters Resume

Gonzaga holds on to a 1 seed despite an ugly performance against Saint Mary's.  Eye has had Saint Mary's in the field all along but now there is no doubt as they secure an automatic bid.  The projection model is derived from the overall seed list released the last two years.  The bottom 18 are automatic qualifiers that need to win their respective conferences to secure a bid.

Bubble Talk
Major conference tournaments start today which will help sort out the bubble.  Seton Hall remains first team out, followed by UNCG. Ohio State, Alabama, Indiana, St. John's and NC State need deep runs to move the needle.  Given the way the numbers fall, the last four in would all play-in on the 12 line.

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:
#1 seeds: Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga
#2 seeds: Michigan State, Kentucky, Tennessee, Kansas
#3 seeds: Houston, Michigan, Texas Tech, Purdue
#4 seeds:  LSU, Florida State, Buffalo, VA Tech
#5 seeds:  Nevada, Wisconsin, Wofford*, Kansas State
#6 seeds:  Auburn, Maryland, Villanova, Mississippi State
#7 seeds:  Cincy, VCU, Louisville, UCF
#8 seeds:  Marquette, Iowa State, Saint Mary's*, Oklahoma
#9 seeds:  Utah State, Washington, Clemson, Syracuse
#10 seeds:  Baylor, Toledo, Murray State*, Minnesota
#11 seeds:  Texas, TCU, New Mexico State, Belmont
#12 seeds: Temple, Iowa, play-in: Mississippi / Arizona State, play-in: Florida / Creighton,
#13 seeds:  Northeastern*, Georgia State, Harvard, UC Irvine
#14 seeds:  Vermont, Liberty*, Old Dominion, Colgate
#15 seeds:  Montana, Northern Kentucky*, Sam Houston State, Gardner-Webb*
#16 seeds:  Prairie View, Bradley*, play-in: Fairleigh Dickinson* / Norfolk State, play-in: North Dakota State* / Iona*

First 4 out:  Seton Hall, UNCG, Davidson, Furman

* automatic bid


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Monday, March 11, 2019

First Automatic Bids Awarded

Top line remains unchanged.  As of today, the model projects the top 50 seeds (listed below) as making the tournament whether they win their conference or not.  The bottom 18 are automatic qualifiers that won't make it unless they win their respective conferences.

Bubble Talk
Murray State ends up in effect stealing a bid.  Their resume was not quite strong enough for an at-large, but beating Belmont boosted it to tournament worthy.  They get the auto bid regardless and Belmont remains in the field as an at-large.  Saint Mary's and Toledo remain in.  Temple rejoins the field while Seton Hall currently first team out.  Iowa and Florida on thin ice.  Ohio State and Alabama fall further out of consideration.  Given the way the numbers fall, the last four in would all play-in on the 12 line.

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:
#1 seeds: Virginia, Duke, Gonzaga, North Carolina
#2 seeds: Michigan State, Tennessee, Kentucky, Kansas
#3 seeds: Michigan, Houston, Texas Tech, Purdue
#4 seeds:  LSU, Florida State, Buffalo, VA Tech
#5 seeds:  Wisconsin, Nevada, Kansas State, Maryland
#6 seeds:  Auburn, Villanova, Mississippi State, Wofford
#7 seeds:  VCU, Louisville, Cincy, Iowa State
#8 seeds:  UCF, Marquette, Oklahoma, Washington 
#9 seeds:  Utah State, Saint Mary's, Clemson, Syracuse
#10 seeds:  Baylor, Minnesota, Texas, Murray State*
#11 seeds:  Toledo, TCU, New Mexico State, Belmont
#12 seeds:  Mississippi, Iowa, play-in: Florida / Creighton, play-in:  Temple / Arizona State
#13 seeds:  Hofstra, UC Irvine, Vermont, Harvard
#14 seeds:  Georgia State, Liberty*, Old Dominion, Colgate
#15 seeds:  Montana, Northern Kentucky, Nebraska Omaha, Sam Houston State
#16 seeds:  Gardner-Webb*, Prairie View, play-in: Bradley* / Fairleigh Dickinson, play-in:  Norfolk State / Iona

First 4 out:  Seton Hall, UNCG, Furman, Ohio State

* automatic bid


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections:

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/