Sunday, March 12, 2017

Selection Sunday!

Countdown to the selection show.  I reluctantly moved Arizona up to the 2 line after back to back wins over UCLA and Oregon.  At this point I can't see Oregon any better than a 4 seed with only 4 wins against RPI top 50 and the #35 SoS (as compared to Butler with 10 wins against RPI top 50 and the #9 SoS, Florida with 6 wins against RPI top 50 and the #7 SoS and Florida St. with 11 wins against RPI top 50 and the #16 SoS).        

Bracketology
My FINAL field prognostication is as follows:

  • #1 seeds:  Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas, Gonzaga
  • #2 seeds:  Kentucky, Duke, Baylor, Arizona 
  • #3 seeds:  Louisville, Florida St., Florida, Butler 
  • #4 seeds:  Oregon, UCLA, Virginia, Purdue
  • #5 seeds:  West Virginia, Notre Dame, Iowa St., Minnesota  
  • #6 seeds:  Michigan, SMU, Cincinnati, Wisconsin 
  • #7 seeds:  Creighton, St. Mary's, Maryland, Dayton  
  • #8 seeds:  Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Miami (FL), Arkansas  
  • #9 seeds:  VCU, Xavier, Virginia Tech, Northwestern 
  • #10 seeds:  Michigan St., Wichita State, Vanderbilt, Marquette   
  • #11 seeds:  Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Middle Tenn. St., play-in: Providence / Wake Forest
  • #12 seeds:  play-in:  Kansas St. / Syracuse, N.C. Wilmington, Nevada, Princeton 
  • #13 seeds:  E. Tennessee St., Vermont, New Mexico St., Bucknell
  • #14 seeds:  Winthrop, Fla. Gulf Coast, Iona, No. Kentucky 
  • #15 seeds:  Texas Southern, Kent St., North Dakota, Mount St Mary's 
  • #16 seeds:  Jacksonville St., New Orleans,  play-in: So. Dakota St. / Troy, play-in: UC Davis / North Carolina Central  
  • First four out:  USC, Illinois St., California, UT Arlington

    Bubble talk
    Not much debate on the bubble.  Comes down to Syracuse or USC for the last at large bid.  Syracuse has an RPI of 84, SoS of 58, 6-8 record against RPI top 50, 8 wins against RPI top 100 and #51 ranking by KenPom.  USC has an RPI of 41, SoS of 73, 2-6 record against RPI top 50, 6 wins against RPI top 100 and #60 ranking by KenPom. 

    Bracket Matrix
    Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
    http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

    Saturday, March 11, 2017

    Three days until the NCAA tourney field of 68 tips off!

    Home stretch now.  Duke crawls up to the 2 line with its impressive win over North Carolina (12th win over an RPI top 50 opponent).  Arizona moves to the top of the Pac 12 pecking order for now with a big matchup against Oregon today.      

    Bracketology
    My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

    • #1 seeds:  Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas, Gonzaga
    • #2 seeds:  Kentucky, Baylor, Louisville, Duke 
    • #3 seeds:  Florida St., Florida, Arizona, Oregon 
    • #4 seeds:  Butler, UCLA, Virginia, Purdue
    • #5 seeds:  West Virginia, Notre Dame, Minnesota, Cincinnati  
    • #6 seeds:  Iowa State, Creighton, Wisconsin, SMU
    • #7 seeds:  St. Mary's, Dayton, Maryland, South Carolina  
    • #8 seeds:  Michigan, Oklahoma State, Miami (FL), VCU  
    • #9 seeds:  Arkansas, Xavier, Virginia Tech, Northwestern 
    • #10 seeds:  Michigan St., Wichita State, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt   
    • #11 seeds:  Marquette, Providence, Middle Tenn. St.*, play-in: Rhode Island / Wake Forest
    • #12 seeds:  play-in:  Kansas St. / Syracuse, N.C. Wilmington, TX Arlington*, Nevada* 
    • #13 seeds:  Vermont*, Princeton*, E. Tennessee St., Akron*
    • #14 seeds:  Bucknell, Winthrop, Fla. Gulf Coast, Iona 
    • #15 seeds:  CSU Bakersfield*, No. Kentucky, Texas Southern*, UC Irvine* 
    • #16 seeds:  So. Dakota St., Jacksonville St., play-in: Mount St Mary's / North Dakota*, play-in: New Orleans* / North Carolina Central*  
    • First four out:  USC, Illinois St., California, Alabama

    * presumed automatic qualifiers

      Bubble talk
      Syracuse still hanging on despite a woeful RPI (SoS of 55, 6-8 record against RPI top 50 and #50 ranking by KenPom).  Houston is done.  USC, Illinois St. and Cal are home waiting for Selection Sunday.  Alabama has emerged from the shadows.  Can they beat Kentucky today?

      Bracket Matrix
      Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
      http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

      Friday, March 10, 2017

      Four days until the NCAA tourney field of 68 tips off!

      It is starting to get interesting now...  Holding Kansas on the 1 line despite losing early in their conference tournament to TCU.      

      Bracketology
      My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

      • #1 seeds:  Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas, Gonzaga
      • #2 seeds:  Kentucky, Louisville, Baylor, Florida St. 
      • #3 seeds:  Florida, Duke, UCLA, Oregon 
      • #4 seeds:  Butler, Virginia, Arizona, Purdue
      • #5 seeds:  West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Minnesota 
      • #6 seeds:  Iowa State, Creighton, Dayton, SMU
      • #7 seeds:  St. Mary's, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Maryland  
      • #8 seeds:  Michigan, Miami (FL), Oklahoma State, VCU  
      • #9 seeds:  Arkansas, Michigan St., Xavier, Virginia Tech  
      • #10 seeds:  Wichita State, Seton Hall, Northwestern, Marquette  
      • #11 seeds:  Providence, Vanderbilt, Middle Tenn. St.*, play-in: Wake Forest / Kansas St.
      • #12 seeds:  play-in: Rhode Island / Syracuse, N.C. Wilmington, TX Arlington*, Nevada* 
      • #13 seeds:  Vermont*, Princeton*, E. Tennessee St., Akron*
      • #14 seeds:  Bucknell, Winthrop, Fla. Gulf Coast, Iona 
      • #15 seeds:  CSU Bakersfield*, No. Kentucky, Texas Southern*, UC Irvine* 
      • #16 seeds:  So. Dakota St., Jacksonville St., play-in: Mount St Mary's / North Dakota*, play-in: New Orleans* / North Carolina Central*  
      • First four out:  USC, Houston, Illinois, California

      * presumed automatic qualifiers

        Bubble talk
        Kansas State with a huge neutral court win against Baylor that vaults them into the field.  Illinois and Iowa both lay eggs in the Big Ten Tournament.  USC plays tough against UCLA but loses and falls out of the field (SoS of 70, 2-6 record against RPI top 50 and #61 ranking by KenPom).  Cal beats a mediocre Utah team but remains on the bubble (SoS of 54, 1-7 record against RPI top 50).  Syracuse is in for the moment despite a woeful RPI (SoS of 55, 6-8 record against RPI top 50 and #48 ranking by KenPom).

        Bracket Matrix
        Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
        http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

        Thursday, March 9, 2017

        Five days until the NCAA tournament field of 68 tips off!

        Middle Tennessee State's profile is holding up well.  So well, in fact, that I've moved them up to the 11 line (assuming they take care of business in their conference tournament) and moved one of the at-large play-in games down to the 12 line.      

        Bracketology
        My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

        • #1 seeds:  Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas, Gonzaga
        • #2 seeds:  Baylor, Louisville, Kentucky, Florida St. 
        • #3 seeds:  Florida, Butler, Duke, UCLA
        • #4 seeds:  Oregon, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue
        • #5 seeds:  West Virginia, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Notre Dame 
        • #6 seeds:  Creighton, Dayton, St. Mary's, SMU
        • #7 seeds:  Iowa State, Wisconsin, Maryland, South Carolina 
        • #8 seeds:  Oklahoma State, Miami (FL), Arkansas, Michigan
        • #9 seeds:  VCU, Michigan St., Virginia Tech, Xavier  
        • #10 seeds:  Wichita State, Seton Hall, Providence, Northwestern
        • #11 seeds:  Marquette, Vanderbilt, Middle Tenn. St.*, play-in: Wake Forest / Rhode Island 
        • #12 seeds:  play-in: USC / Syracuse, N.C. Wilmington, TX Arlington*, Nevada* 
        • #13 seeds:  Vermont*, Princeton*, E. Tennessee St., Akron*
        • #14 seeds:  Bucknell, Winthrop, Fla. Gulf Coast, Iona 
        • #15 seeds:  CSU Bakersfield*, No. Kentucky, Texas Southern*, UC Irvine* 
        • #16 seeds:  So. Dakota St., Jacksonville St., play-in: Mount St Mary's / North Dakota*, play-in: New Orleans* / North Carolina Central*  
        • First four out:  Kansas State, Illinois, Iowa, California

        * presumed automatic qualifiers

          Bubble talk
          Wake and Syracuse lose to quality ACC teams yesterday.  USC and Cal slip by weaker opponents.  Kansas State with a huge matchup against Baylor today. Illinois and Iowa with must-wins against Michigan and Indiana respectively.

          Bracket Matrix
          Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
          http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

          Wednesday, March 8, 2017

          Six days until the NCAA tournament field of 68 tips off!

          Major conference tournaments step up a gear today.  Middle Tennessee State's profile is holding up well.  So well, in fact, that I've moved them up to the 11 line (assuming they take care of business in their conference tournament) and moved one of the at-large play-in games down to the 12 line.      

          Bracketology
          My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

          • #1 seeds:  Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas, Gonzaga
          • #2 seeds:  Baylor, Louisville, Kentucky, Florida
          • #3 seeds:  Duke, Florida St., Butler, UCLA
          • #4 seeds:  Oregon, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue
          • #5 seeds:  West Virginia, Cincinnati, Minnesota, Notre Dame 
          • #6 seeds:  Creighton, Dayton, St. Mary's, SMU
          • #7 seeds:  Iowa State, Wisconsin, Maryland, South Carolina 
          • #8 seeds:  Oklahoma State, Miami (FL), Arkansas, Michigan St.
          • #9 seeds:  Michigan, VCU, Virginia Tech, Xavier  
          • #10 seeds:  Seton Hall, Providence, Wichita State, Northwestern
          • #11 seeds:  Vanderbilt, Marquette, Middle Tenn. St.*, play-in: Wake Forest / Rhode Island 
          • #12 seeds:  N.C. Wilmington, TX Arlington*, Nevada*, play-in: USC / Syracuse
          • #13 seeds:  Vermont*, Princeton*, E. Tennessee St., Akron*
          • #14 seeds:  Bucknell*, Winthrop, Fla Gulf Coast, Iona 
          • #15 seeds:  CSU Bakersfield*, No. Kentucky, Texas Southern*, UC Irvine* 
          • #16 seeds:  So. Dakota St., Jacksonville St., play-in: Mount St Mary's / North Dakota*, play-in: New Orleans* / North Carolina Central*  
          • First four out:  Kansas State, Illinois, Iowa, California

          * presumed automatic qualifiers

            Bubble talk
            Let's get it on.  Wake Forest, Syracuse, USC and Cal all in action today.

            Bracket Matrix
            Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
            http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

            Tuesday, March 7, 2017

            7 days until the NCAA tournament field of 68 tips off!

            Major conference tournaments start up today and a few more automatic bids to be decided.    

            Bracketology
            My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

            • #1 seeds:  Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas, Gonzaga
            • #2 seeds:  Baylor, Louisville, Kentucky, Florida
            • #3 seeds:  Duke, Florida St., Butler, UCLA
            • #4 seeds:  Oregon, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue
            • #5 seeds:  West Virginia, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Creighton
            • #6 seeds:  Cincinnati, Dayton, St. Mary's, SMU
            • #7 seeds:  Iowa State, Wisconsin, Maryland, South Carolina 
            • #8 seeds:  Oklahoma State, Miami (FL), Arkansas, Michigan St.
            • #9 seeds:  Michigan, VCU, Virginia Tech, Xavier  
            • #10 seeds:  Seton Hall, Providence, Wichita State, Northwestern
            • #11 seeds:  Vanderbilt, Marquette, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, USC, Syracuse
            • #12 seeds:  Middle Tenn. St.*, TX Arlington*, N.C. Wilmington, Nevada*
            • #13 seeds:  Vermont*, Princeton*, E. Tennessee St., Akron*
            • #14 seeds:  Bucknell*, Winthrop, Fla Gulf Coast, Iona 
            • #15 seeds:  CSU Bakersfield*, No. Kentucky*, Texas Southern*, Neb.-Omaha* 
            • #16 seeds:  North Dakota*, Jacksonville State, UC Irvine*, Mount St Mary's*, New Orleans*, North Carolina Central*  
            • First four out:  Kansas State, Illinois, Iowa, California

            * presumed automatic qualifiers

              Bubble talk
              Not a lot of bubble teams in action today.  Wake Forest needs to take care of business against a woeful BC team.

              Bracket Matrix
              Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
              http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

              Monday, March 6, 2017

              8 days until the NCAA tournament field of 68 tips off

              Conference tournaments in full swing.  Tournament favorites such as Belmont and Monmouth are dropping like flies.  

              Bracketology
              My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

              • #1 seeds:  Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas, Gonzaga
              • #2 seeds:  Baylor, Louisville, Kentucky, Florida
              • #3 seeds:  Duke, Florida St., Butler, UCLA
              • #4 seeds:  Oregon, Arizona, Virginia, Purdue
              • #5 seeds:  West Virginia, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Creighton
              • #6 seeds:  Cincinnati, Dayton, St. Mary's, SMU
              • #7 seeds:  Iowa State, Wisconsin, Maryland, South Carolina 
              • #8 seeds:  Oklahoma State, Miami (FL), Arkansas, Michigan St.
              • #9 seeds:  Michigan, VCU, Virginia Tech, Xavier  
              • #10 seeds:  Seton Hall, Providence, Wichita State, Northwestern
              • #11 seeds:  Vanderbilt, Marquette, Rhode Island, Wake Forest, USC, Syracuse
              • #12 seeds:  Middle Tenn. St.*, TX Arlington*, N.C. Wilmington*, Nevada*
              • #13 seeds:  Iona*, Vermont*, Princeton*, Akron*
              • #14 seeds:  Winthrop, E. Tennessee St.*, Valparaiso*, CSU Bakersfield*
              • #15 seeds:  Bucknell*, Fla Gulf Coast, N. Dak. St.*, North Dakota*
              • #16 seeds:  Jacksonville State, UC Irvine*, North Carolina Central*, Mount St Mary's*, New Orleans*, Texas Southern*
              • First four out:  Kansas State, Illinois, Iowa, California

              * presumed automatic qualifiers

                Bubble talk
                Ilinois and California with devastating blows to their chances over the weekend losing to Rutgers and Colorado respectively.  Wake Forest with another big win, this time over VA Tech, that puts them in the field.  Syracuse hanging on by a thread with a similar profile to last year highlighted by a 6-7 record against the RPI top 50.

                Bracket Matrix
                Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
                http://www.bracketmatrix.com/