Eye on the Tournament: 2018 Road to the Final Four

Now that conference play is well underway, I figured it was time to post my first bracket of the season. Lots of parity this season. The Big 10 has been a Big Disappointment. The Big 12 has been one big cage match. But does the Big East end up sending even more teams than the Big 12? We shall see how things play out over the coming weeks. Lots of season left to make a run at a tournament bid.

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds: Villanova, Duke, Virginia, Purdue

#2 seeds: North Carolina, Xavier, Kansas, Oklahoma

#3 seeds: Clemson, Seton Hall, Texas Tech, West Virginia

#4 seeds: Kentucky, Ohio State, Auburn, Creighton

#5 seeds: Tennessee, TCU, Cincinnati, Arizona

#6 seeds: Rhode Island, Louisville, Arizona State, Miami (FL)

#7 seeds: Wichita State, Michigan, Nevada, Florida

#8 seeds: Michigan State, Missouri, Florida State, Gonzaga

#9 seeds: Texas A&M, Butler, Texas, Marquette

#10 seeds: Saint Mary's, SMU, Alabama, Arkansas

#11 seeds: Notre Dame, Syracuse, play-in: Providence / Georgia, play-in: Houston / Boise State

#12 seeds: Middle Tennessee State*, New Mexico State*, LA Lafayette*, East Tennessee State*

#13 seeds: Northern Kentucky*, Murray State*, Vermont*, South Dakota State*

#14 seeds: Bucknell*, Buffalo*, Loyola-Chicago*, Penn*

#15 seeds: Iona*, Florida Gulf Coast*, Montana*, SF Austin*

#16 seeds: UC Davis*, William & Mary*, play-in: Robert Morris* / Radford*, play-in: Jackson State* / North Carolina Central*

First Four Out: UCLA, USC, Maryland, Kansas State

* presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk

As it stands, my Last Four In are Providence, Georgia, Houston and Boise State. Arguments can be made for all of my First Four Out, but they are not without their warts. UCLA is 2-3 against the RPI top 50, USC is 1-3 against the RPI top 50, Maryland is 1-6 against the RPI top 50 and Kansas State is 1-4 against the RPI top 50 with an RPI of 70 (although they just pounded Oklahoma).

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out. Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Thursday, January 18, 2018

2018 Road to the Final Four