Friday, March 8, 2019

First Tickets Punched this Weekend

Not much movement in the top 5 lines this week.  As of today, the model projects the top 50 seeds (listed below) as making the tournament whether they win their conference or not.  The model indicates Wofford, New Mexico State and Belmont would get at-larges, if need be.  The bottom 18 are automatic qualifiers that won't make it unless they win their respective conferences.

Bubble Talk
Furman, Toledo and Saint Mary's remain in.  Iowa, Ohio State and Alabama are ice cold and slipping.  A small percentage of us never had North Carolina State in the field but they didn't do themselves any favors with a devastating home loss to Georgia Tech.  Given the way the numbers fall, the last four in would all play-in on the 12 line.

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:
#1 seeds: Virginia, Duke, Gonzaga, North Carolina
#2 seeds: Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan, Michigan State
#3 seeds: Kansas, Houston, Texas Tech, Purdue
#4 seeds:  LSU, Florida State, Buffalo, VA Tech
#5 seeds:  Wisconsin, Nevada, Kansas State, Auburn 
#6 seeds:  Villanova, Maryland, Mississippi State, Wofford
#7 seeds:  Cincy, Marquette, Louisville, VCU
#8 seeds:  Iowa State, UCF, Washington, Oklahoma
#9 seeds:  Utah State, Syracuse, Texas, Saint Mary's
#10 seeds:  Minnesota, Iowa, Baylor, Clemson
#11 seeds:  Toledo, Belmont, New Mexico State, Florida
#12 seeds:  TCU, Creighton, play-in: Arizona State / Furman, play-in: Mississippi / St. John's
#13 seeds:  Lipscomb, Hofstra, UC Irvine, Vermont
#14 seeds:  Harvard, Drake, Old Dominion, Radford
#15 seeds:  Colgate, Montana, Texas State, South Dakota State
#16 seeds:  Northern Kentucky, Sam Houston State, play-in:  Prairie View / Norfolk State, play-in:  Fairleigh Dickinson / Iona

First 4 out:  Temple, Ohio State, Seton Hall, Murray State


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/