Saturday, February 2, 2019

Happy Groundhog Day

Hard to believe it is already February.  Remember, Eye is taking a bit of a different approach this season by using a model to project the teams and seeds.  As of today, the model projects the top 48 seeds (listed below) as making the tournament whether they win their conference or not.  The bottom 20 are automatic qualifiers that won't make it unless they win their respective conferences.  

Bubble Talk
The last two at large bids would go to Clemson and Utah State.  And because of the way the numbers fall, the last four in would all play-in on the 12 line.  The model indicates both Wofford and Lipscomb would get in as at-larges regardless of whether they stumble in their conferences.  San Francisco, Temple, Creighton, Seton Hall are the first four out.  But my gut tells me there will be a spot open with Nebraska on its way out very soon.

My field prognostication as of today is as follows:
#1 seeds:  Duke, Virginia, Michigan State, Tennessee
#2 seeds: Michigan, Purdue, North Carolina, Gonzaga
#3 seeds:  Kansas, Kentucky, Houston, Nevada
#4 seeds:  Louisville, LSU, Villanova, Wisconsin
#5 seeds:  Iowa State, Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, Marquette
#6 seeds:  Maryland, Buffalo, TCU, Florida State
#7 seeds:  Auburn, Oklahoma, Cincy, Iowa
#8 seeds:  Mississippi State, Washington, Kansas State, Texas
#9 seeds:  Alabama, Syracuse, Wofford, Ohio State
#10 seeds:  VCU, St. John's, Minnesota, UCF
#11 seeds:  Mississippi, Baylor, Lipscomb, Arizona State
#12 seeds:  play-in: Florida / Nebraska, play-in: Clemson / Utah State, Davidson, Hofstra
#13 seeds:  Belmont, New Mexico State, Vermont, Yale
#14 seeds:  Old Dominion, Texas State, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky
#15 seeds:  Montana, Radford, UC Irvine, Loyola-Chicago
#16 seeds:  Lehigh, Abilene Christian, play-in: Rider / Robert Morris, play-in: Prairie View / Norfolk State

First 4 Out:  San Francisco, Temple, Creighton, Seton Hall

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.