Friday, January 25, 2019

First Bracketology of 2019

Good to be back!  Eye is taking a bit of a different approach this season.  After being deceived and misled by the committee on points of emphasis over the years, I've decided to develop a model based on recent history and let the numbers do the talking.  I will no longer fall for the committee's subterfuge.  Remember the Quadrant system last year?  Yeah, neither does anybody else because in the end, it didn't matter.  This year it is NET ranking.  I'll believe it when I see it.  I'm taking the emotion out and letting the model project the teams and seeds.  As of today, the model projects the top 47 seeds (listed below) as making the tournament whether they win their conference or not.  The bottom 21 are automatic qualifiers that won't make it unless they win their respective conferences.  

Bubble Talk
The last two at large bids would go to Arizona State and Creighton.  And because of the way the numbers fall, they would play-in on the 12 line.  The model has a couple surprises comfortably in including Wofford and Utah State. Minnesota, Ohio State, San Francisco and Florida are the first four out.

My field prognostication as of today is as follows:
#1 seeds:  Duke, Michigan State, Virginia, Tennessee
#2 seeds: Kansas, Michigan, Gonzaga, North Carolina
#3 seeds:  Purdue, Louisville, Kentucky, Oklahoma
#4 seeds:  Houston, Maryland, LSU, TCU
#5 seeds:  Villanova, Nevada, Iowa St., Virginia Tech
#6 seeds:  Buffalo, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Kansas State
#7 seeds:  Mississippi St., Auburn, Marquette, Florida State
#8 seeds:  Cincy, Texas, Mississippi, Washington
#9 seeds:  Iowa, Nebraska, Alabama, St. John's
#10 seeds:  Syracuse, Wofford, UCF, Indiana
#11 seeds:  VCU, Utah State, Butler, play-in: Temple / Seton Hall
#12 seeds:  play-in:  Arizona State / Creighton, Murray State, Lipscomb, Hofstra
#13 seeds:  New Mexico State, Davidson, Yale, North Texas
#14 seeds:  Radford, Texas State, Northern Kentucky, South Dakota State
#15 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, Stony Brook, UC Irvine, Weber State
#16 seeds:  Rider, Bucknell, play-in:  Abilene Christian / Robert Morris, play-in: Prairie View / Norfolk State

First 4 Out:  Minnesota, Ohio State, San Francisco, Florida

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.