Sunday, March 12, 2017

Selection Sunday!

Countdown to the selection show.  I reluctantly moved Arizona up to the 2 line after back to back wins over UCLA and Oregon.  At this point I can't see Oregon any better than a 4 seed with only 4 wins against RPI top 50 and the #35 SoS (as compared to Butler with 10 wins against RPI top 50 and the #9 SoS, Florida with 6 wins against RPI top 50 and the #7 SoS and Florida St. with 11 wins against RPI top 50 and the #16 SoS).        

My FINAL field prognostication is as follows:

  • #1 seeds:  Villanova, North Carolina, Kansas, Gonzaga
  • #2 seeds:  Kentucky, Duke, Baylor, Arizona 
  • #3 seeds:  Louisville, Florida St., Florida, Butler 
  • #4 seeds:  Oregon, UCLA, Virginia, Purdue
  • #5 seeds:  West Virginia, Notre Dame, Iowa St., Minnesota  
  • #6 seeds:  Michigan, SMU, Cincinnati, Wisconsin 
  • #7 seeds:  Creighton, St. Mary's, Maryland, Dayton  
  • #8 seeds:  Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Miami (FL), Arkansas  
  • #9 seeds:  VCU, Xavier, Virginia Tech, Northwestern 
  • #10 seeds:  Michigan St., Wichita State, Vanderbilt, Marquette   
  • #11 seeds:  Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Middle Tenn. St., play-in: Providence / Wake Forest
  • #12 seeds:  play-in:  Kansas St. / Syracuse, N.C. Wilmington, Nevada, Princeton 
  • #13 seeds:  E. Tennessee St., Vermont, New Mexico St., Bucknell
  • #14 seeds:  Winthrop, Fla. Gulf Coast, Iona, No. Kentucky 
  • #15 seeds:  Texas Southern, Kent St., North Dakota, Mount St Mary's 
  • #16 seeds:  Jacksonville St., New Orleans,  play-in: So. Dakota St. / Troy, play-in: UC Davis / North Carolina Central  
  • First four out:  USC, Illinois St., California, UT Arlington

    Bubble talk
    Not much debate on the bubble.  Comes down to Syracuse or USC for the last at large bid.  Syracuse has an RPI of 84, SoS of 58, 6-8 record against RPI top 50, 8 wins against RPI top 100 and #51 ranking by KenPom.  USC has an RPI of 41, SoS of 73, 2-6 record against RPI top 50, 6 wins against RPI top 100 and #60 ranking by KenPom. 

    Bracket Matrix
    Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.