Less than 3 weeks to Selection Sunday

As a reminder, the new selection committee lingo groups wins into quadrants and they break down as follows:  

• Quadrant 1: games at home vs teams ranked 1-30 in the RPI, neutral vs 1-50, road vs 1-75

• Quadrant 2: home vs 31-75, neutral vs 51-100, road vs 76-135

• Quadrant 3: home vs 76-160, neutral vs 101-200, road vs 136-240

• Quadrant 4: home vs 161-plus, neutral vs 201-plus, Road vs 241-plus

Risers since my last projection include Kentucky (4-7 in Quadrant 1 games despite recent losing streak) and Gonzaga (RPI is terrible but 25-4 overall and 3-2 in Q1 games).  Fallers include Oklahoma and Texas A&M (plenty of Q1 wins for both but has a team from a major conference ever received an at-large bid with a conference record 3 games below .500)?


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  North Carolina, Auburn, Purdue, Cincinnati
#3 seeds:  Duke,  Michigan State, Texas Tech, Tennessee
#4 seeds:  Arizona, Clemson , Wichita State, Houston
#5 seeds:  Nevada, Ohio State, West Virginia, Gonzaga
#6 seeds:  Kentucky, TCU, Rhode Island, Miami (FL)
#7 seeds:  Michigan, Arizona State , Alabama, Seton Hall
#8 seeds:  Saint Mary's, Arkansas, Florida State, Providence
#9 seeds:   Butler, Creighton, Missouri, Florida
#10 seeds:  Oklahoma, Texas A&M, St. Bonaventure, VA Tech 
#11 seeds:  Washington,  NC State, Middle Tennessee State*, play-in:  Texas / UCLA
#12 seeds:  Buffalo*, Vermont*, New Mexico State*, play-in: Baylor / Kansas State
#13 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Loyola-Chicago*, East Tennessee State*, Rider*
#14 seeds:  Belmont*, Bucknell*, College of Charleston*, UC Santa Barbara*
#15 seeds:  Montana*, Northern Kentucky*, Wagner*, South Dakota*
#16 seeds:  Florida Gulf Coast*, Winthrop*, play-in:  SF Austin* / Penn*, play-in: Southern* / Savannah State*  
First Five Out:   Syracuse, USC, Louisville, Marquette, Georgia

* presumed automatic qualifiers


Bubble Talk
Moved MTSU up to the 11 line - resume is looking better with 22-5 overall record and 2-3 in Q1 games.  Syracuse, USC and Louisville out with poor Q1 records.       


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

New Selection Committee Terminology

The NCAA Top 16 reveal over the weekend raised some eyebrows and shined a light on an announcement the selection committee quietly made in December.  The selection committee will no longer use top 50 RPI, top 100, 200 and 201+ as dividing categories.  Instead, the new terminology will be Quadrants 1, 2, 3 and 4. The decision is to get away from treating every team the same if the game was on the road, neutral or at home based on their power rating. Now the road/neutral games will matter more.  Here are the definitions of those categories:
• Quadrant 1: games at home vs teams ranked 1-30 in the RPI, neutral vs 1-50, road vs 1-75
• Quadrant 2: home vs 31-75, neutral vs 51-100, road vs 76-135
• Quadrant 3: home vs 76-160, neutral vs 101-200, road vs 136-240
• Quadrant 4: home vs 161-plus, neutral vs 201-plus, Road vs 241-plus

So now if a team is able to beat the #1 team in the RPI at home and the #75 team in the RPI on the road, it will have two Quadrant 1 wins.  Makes perfect sense.  The critics, including Jay Bilas, will tell you they are basically taking a trash RPI number and reformatting it into another trash number.   Garbage in, garbage out.  Hard to argue with that because most agree RPI is not a great indicator of relative value in the first place. But, that being said, it is what it is so this year we get to talk about Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 4 losses as “good wins” and “bad losses”.

Below is a link to the new Team Sheets:
https://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/images/2017/12/04/team_sheet_guide1.pdf

Given my new perspective, I moved KU up to the 1 line with the most Quadrant 1 wins in the nation (9) against just 3 losses.  Interesting decisions on the 4 line - Wichita State is 2-3 in Quadrant 1 games, TAMU is 5-6.  Houston up to the 6 line with a great win over Cincy and a 4-2 record in Quadrant 1 games.

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

• #1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Kansas
• #2 seeds:  Auburn, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Texas Tech 
• #3 seeds:  Purdue, Michigan State, Duke,  Clemson  
• #4 seeds:  Arizona, Tennessee, Wichita State, Texas A&M
• #5 seeds:  Nevada, Rhode Island, Ohio State,  Oklahoma
• #6 seeds:  Houston, Missouri, West Virginia, Seton Hall
• #7 seeds:  Creighton, Alabama, Gonzaga, Miami (FL)
• #8 seeds:  Providence, TCU, Florida State, Arkansas
• #9 seeds:  Kentucky, Saint Mary's, Arizona State, Michigan
• #10 seeds:  Washington, Butler,  Florida, Louisville
• #11 seeds:  NC State, Kansas State, play-in: VA Tech / Texas, play-in: UCLA / St. Bonaventure
• #12 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, Buffalo*, Vermont*, New Mexico State*  
• #13 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Loyola-Chicago*, East Tennessee State*, Rider*
• #14 seeds:  Belmont*, Bucknell*, College of Charleston*, UC Santa Barbara*
• #15 seeds:  Montana*, Northern Kentucky*, Wagner*, South Dakota*
• #16 seeds:  Florida Gulf Coast*, Winthrop*, play-in:  SF Austin* / Penn*, play-in: Arkansas-Pine Bluff* / Savannah State*  
• First Six Out:   USC, Syracuse, Temple, Baylor, Utah, Marquette

   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk

The 11 line is dominated by flawed teams with a healthy number of Quadrant 1 wins including NC State, Kansas State, VA Tech, Texas and St. Bonny.  USC and Syracuse both on the outside looking in with poor Quadrant 1 records.       

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Purdue Hanging On

Tough week for Purdue with losses to Ohio State and Michigan State, but still hanging on to a 1 seed.  Clemson making a case though with a 20-4 overall record and 3 wins against the RPI top 25 (6 wins against the RPI top 50).  Texas A&M up to the 4 line now with an impressive 7 wins against the RPI top 50.  Virginia Tech moves into the field with a heck of a win at Virginia.  VA Tech and Texas each with a pair of top 25 RPI wins. Syracuse and USC both playing 11 seed play-in games with decent RPIs, but weak records vs. RPI top 50.  NC State and the other newbie, Temple, are the last two in, each with flawed resumes but the former with an impressive 4 wins vs. RPI top 25 and the latter with 3 wins vs. RPI top 25.  

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

• #1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Purdue  
• #2 seeds:  Clemson, North Carolina, Duke, Kansas 
• #3 seeds:  Auburn, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Texas Tech 
• #4 seeds:  Tennessee, Ohio State, Arizona, Texas A&M
• #5 seeds:  Rhode Island, Oklahoma, Nevada, West Virginia
• #6 seeds:  Creighton, Kentucky, Wichita State, Seton Hall
• #7 seeds:  Miami (FL), Missouri, TCU, Arizona State
• #8 seeds:  Houston, Alabama, Gonzaga, Arkansas
• #9 seeds:  Butler, Florida, Florida State, Washington
• #10 seeds:  Providence, Saint Mary's, Michigan, UCLA
• #11 seeds:  VA Tech, Texas, play-in: Syracuse / USC, play-in: NC State / Temple  
• #12 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, Buffalo*, Vermont*, New Mexico State*  
• #13 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Loyola-Chicago*, East Tennessee State*, Rider*
• #14 seeds:  Belmont*, Bucknell*, College of Charleston*, UC Santa Barbara*
• #15 seeds:  Montana*, Northern Kentucky*, Wagner*, South Dakota*
• #16 seeds:  Florida Gulf Coast*, UNC Asheville, play-in:  SF Austin / Penn*, play-in: Arkansas-Pine Bluff* / Savannah State*  
• First Six Out:  Louisville, Baylor, Mississippi State, Kansas State, St. Bonaventure, Boise State

   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk

Kansas State moves out - tough to overcome the #63 RPI.  Louisville moves out - tough to overcome the 1-8 record against RPI top 50.  Baylor now knocking on the door with some impressive conference wins.  Miss State still in consideration.  St. Bonny's and Boise on the outside looking in.       

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

X Marks the Spot

Auburn trips up at home against Texas A&M (resulting in a nice jump for TAMU).  Duke falls at UNC.  Xavier improves to 22-3, 3-1 against the RPI top 25.  Big jump for Houston up to the 7 line.  They just keep winning.  Moved Middle Tennessee State down to the 12 line with no wins against the RPI top 50, thereby creating two play-in games on the 11 line.         

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

• #1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Purdue, Xavier
• #2 seeds:  Kansas, Auburn, Duke, Clemson
• #3 seeds:  North Carolina, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Texas Tech 
• #4 seeds:  Ohio State, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Kentucky
• #5 seeds:  Creighton, Arizona, Nevada, Rhode Island
• #6 seeds:  Miami (FL), Seton Hall, West Virginia, Wichita State
• #7 seeds:  Texas A&M, Saint Mary's, TCU, Houston
• #8 seeds:  Providence, Arizona State, Michigan, Arkansas
• #9 seeds:  Missouri, Florida State, Butler, Washington
• #10 seeds:  Alabama, Texas, Florida, Gonzaga
• #11 seeds:  NC State, UCLA, play-in: USC / Syracuse, play-in: Louisville /  Kansas State 
• #12 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, Buffalo*, New Mexico State*, Loyola-Chicago* 
• #13 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Vermont*, East Tennessee State*, Belmont* 
• #14 seeds:  UC Santa Barbara*, Bucknell*, Wagner*, Northern Kentucky*
• #15 seeds:  Montana*, College of Charleston*, SF Austin*, South Dakota*
• #16 seeds:  Iona*, Penn*  play-in: Radford* / Florida Gulf Coast*, play-in: Arkansas-Pine Bluff* / North Carolina A&T*  
• First Six Out:  Mississippi State, VA Tech, Western Kentucky, St. Bonaventure, Boise State, Temple

   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk

UCLA moves solidly into the field with an impressive win at Arizona. They now have 4 wins against the RPI top 50.  Kansas State re-enters the field as well with a 17-7 overall record and 3 wins against the RPI top 50.  Western Kentucky (1 win against RPI top 50) and Boise State (0 wins against RPI top 50) fall out of the field.  Louisville hanging in there despite an 0-6 record against RPI top 25, 1-8 against RPI top 50.  I still think Mississippi State is within striking distance.  Temple has 3 wins against the RPI top 25 - can they keep winning?      

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Auburn Joins the Giants

Auburn just keeps winning and replaces Duke on the 1 line.  Clemson pushes up to the 2 line fueled by a 3-2 record against the RPI top 25.      

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

• #1 seeds:  Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Auburn
• #2 seeds:  Duke, Kansas, Xavier, Clemson
• #3 seeds:  Tennessee, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, North Carolina
• #4 seeds:  Michigan State, Arizona, Miami (FL), Ohio State
• #5 seeds:  Nevada, Oklahoma,  Seton Hall, Kentucky 
• #6 seeds:  Rhode Island, Creighton, West Virginia, Wichita State
• #7 seeds:  Saint Mary's, TCU, Washington, Florida State
• #8 seeds:  Arkansas, Providence, Michigan, Missouri 
• #9 seeds:  Butler, Texas A&M, Gonzaga, Florida
• #10 seeds:  Houston, Texas, Alabama, Arizona State
• #11 seeds:  USC, Syracuse, Middle Tennessee State*, play-in: NC State / Louisville
• #12 seeds:  Buffalo*, New Mexico State*, Loyola-Chicago*, play-in: Western Kentucky / Boise State
• #13 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Vermont*, East Tennessee State*, Belmont* 
• #14 seeds:  UC Santa Barbara*, Bucknell*, Wagner*, Northern Kentucky*
• #15 seeds:  Montana*, College of Charleston*, SF Austin*, South Dakota*
• #16 seeds:  Iona*, Penn*  play-in: Radford* / Florida Gulf Coast*, play-in: Grambling* / North Carolina A&T*  
• First Six Out:  UCLA, Mississippi State, VA Tech, SMU, St. Bonaventure, Kansas State

   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk

Last two in are Western Kentucky and Boise State with minimal wins against the RPI top 50.  UCLA and Mississippi State move into consideration.  Texas A&M now safely in the field after improving conference record to two games below .500.     

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Happy Groundhog Day

Auburn just keeps winning and moves up to the 2 line.   

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

• #1 seeds:  Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Duke
• #2 seeds:  Xavier, Kansas, Auburn,  Oklahoma
• #3 seeds:  Clemson, Tennessee, North Carolina, Texas Tech 
• #4 seeds:  Cincinnati, Arizona, Kentucky, Michigan State
• #5 seeds:  Seton Hall, Miami (FL), Ohio State, Nevada
• #6 seeds:  Rhode Island, TCU, Wichita State, Creighton
• #7 seeds:  Louisville, Butler, West Virginia, Saint Mary's
• #8 seeds:  Arkansas, Michigan, Florida, Texas
• #9 seeds:  Alabama, Florida State, USC, Gonzaga
• #10 seeds:  Providence, Houston, Arizona State, Syracuse 
• #11 seeds:  NC State, Washington, Middle Tennessee State*, play-in: Missouri / Western Kentucky
• #12 seeds:  Buffalo*, New Mexico State*, Loyola-Chicago*, play-in:  Texas A&M / Boise State
• #13 seeds:  Louisiana-Lafayette*, Vermont*, East Tennessee State*, Belmont* 
• #14 seeds:  UC Santa Barbara*, Bucknell*, Wagner*, Northern Kentucky*
• #15 seeds:  Montana*, College of Charleston*, SF Austin*, South Dakota*
• #16 seeds:  Iona*, Penn*  play-in: Radford* / Florida Gulf Coast*, play-in: Jackson State* / North Carolina A&T*  
• First Six Out:  Kansas State, VA Tech, SMU, Georgia, Utah, Marquette

   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk

Missouri and Western Kentucky (early win against Purdue is the resume highlight) move into the field.  SMU and Kansas State fall out.  Both have woeful RPIs in the mid 60s.  Texas A&M still in the field, for now, but needs to improve upon its 3-6 conference record.     

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/