Kentucky Surges to the Top Line

Kentucky surges to the top line after thrashing Tennessee over the weekend. As of today, the model projects the top 49 seeds (listed below) as making the tournament whether they win their conference or not.  The bottom 19 are automatic qualifiers that won't make it unless they win their respective conferences.  

Bubble Talk
The last two at-large bids would go to Alabama and San Francisco.  Given the way the numbers fall, the last four in would all play-in on the 12 line.  The model indicates Wofford and New Mexico State would get in as at-larges regardless of whether they stumble in their conferences.  Florida and Seton Hall re-enter the field.  Toledo hanging on despite the home loss to Buffalo.  North Carolina State still not even close with an RPI of 99.  

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:
#1 seeds: Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, Kentucky
#2 seeds: Tennessee, Michigan, Michigan State, Kansas
#3 seeds: North Carolina, Houston, Purdue, LSU
#4 seeds:  Texas Tech, Iowa State, Buffalo, Nevada
#5 seeds:  Villanova, Wisconsin, Florida State, Louisville
#6 seeds:  Marquette, Maryland, VA Tech, Kansas State
#7 seeds:  Mississippi State, Iowa, Cincy, Auburn
#8 seeds:  Washington, Wofford, Oklahoma, TCU
#9 seeds:  Mississippi, Texas, TCU, St. John's
#10 seeds:  UCF, Syracuse, Utah State, Clemson
#11 seeds:  Toledo, Ohio State, Baylor, Minnesota

#12 seeds:  New Mexico State, Lipscomb, play-in: Florida / Seton Hall, play-in: Alabama / San Francisco
#13 seeds:  Yale, Belmont, Hofstra, UC Irvine
#14 seeds:  Vermont, Drake, Old Dominion, Montana
#15 seeds:  Radford, Texas State, Bucknell, Northern Kentucky
#16 seeds:  South Dakota State, Sam Houston State, play-in:  St. Francis (PA) / Prairie View, play-in:  Norfolk State / Quinnipiac

First 4 Out:  Saint Mary's, Temple, Butler, Arizona State

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Conference Tournaments Begin in 18 Days

Tennessee returns to the top line.  Again, strictly formulaic.  As of today, the model projects the top 50 seeds (listed below) as making the tournament whether they win their conference or not.  The bottom 18 are automatic qualifiers that won't make it unless they win their respective conferences.  

Bubble Talk
The last two at-large bids would go to San Francisco and Temple.  And because of the way the numbers fall, two of the last four would would play-in on the 11 line and two would play-in on the 12 line.  The model indicates Wofford, Lipscomb and New Mexico State would all get in as at-larges regardless of whether they stumble in their conferences.  UCF, Clemson and Toledo moving up. San Fran finally cracks the field. Minnesota hanging on by a thread after getting jobbed by the officials in Lincoln last night.  

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:
#1 seeds: Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, Tennessee
#2 seeds: Kansas, North Carolina, Michigan, Purdue
#3 seeds: Michigan State, Kentucky, Houston, LSU
#4 seeds:  Texas Tech, Villanova, Nevada, Louisville
#5 seeds:  Wisconsin, Kansas State, Maryland, Iowa State
#6 seeds:  Buffalo, Florida State, VA Tech, Marquette
#7 seeds:  Mississippi State, Cincy, Washington, Iowa
#8 seeds:  TCU, Auburn, Mississippi State, Wofford
#9 seeds:  Texas, VCU, Oklahoma, Ohio State
#10 seeds:  Alabama, UCF, Baylor, Clemson
#11 seeds:  Toledo, Syracuse, St. John's, play-in: Utah State / Minnesota

#12 seeds:  New Mexico State, Lipscomb, Yale, play-in: San Francisco / Temple

#13 seeds:  Davidson, Belmont, Hofstra, Vermont
#14 seeds:  UC Irvine, Radford, Old Dominion, Bucknell
#15 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, Northern Kentucky, Texas State, Montana
#16 seeds:  South Dakota State, Sam Houston State, play-in:  St. Francis (PA) / Prairie View, play-in:  Norfolk State / Quinnipiac

First 4 Out:  Saint Mary's, Seton Hall, Butler, Florida

Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Volunteers Slip to the 2 Line

As the major conferences slug it out, strength of schedule improves more for some than others.  Surprisingly, Tennessee falls to the 2 line despite a 17 game win streak.  Again, strictly formulaic.  As of today, the model projects the top 48 seeds (listed below) as making the tournament whether they win their conference or not.  The bottom 20 are automatic qualifiers that won't make it unless they win their respective conferences.  

Bubble Talk
The last two at-large bids would go to newcomers Creighton and Temple.  And because of the way the numbers fall, the last four would all play-in on the 12 line.  The model indicates both Wofford and Lipscomb would get in as at-larges regardless of whether they stumble in their conferences.  Toledo comes out of nowhere to join the field.  San Francisco, Indiana, Saint Mary's and Arkansas are the first four out.  Arizona State, Nebraska, Florida, Butler, Seton Hall, wherefore art thou?

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:
#1 seeds: Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, North Carolina
#2 seeds: Michigan, Tennessee, Kansas, Kentucky
#3 seeds: Michigan State, Purdue, Houston, Nevada
#4 seeds:  Louisville, Villanova, Iowa State, Wisconsin
#5 seeds:  LSU, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Texas Tech
#6 seeds:  Maryland, Buffalo, Washington, Auburn
#7 seeds:  Mississippi State, Marquette, Kansas State, Iowa
#8 seeds:  Cincy, TCU, Oklahoma, Texas
#9 seeds:  Wofford, VCU, St. John's, Baylor
#10 seeds:  Syracuse, Lipscomb, Ohio State, Alabama
#11 seeds:  Utah State, Clemson, Minnesota, Mississippi 
#12 seeds:  play-in: Toledo / UCF, play-in: Creighton / Temple, Davidson, Yale
#13 seeds:  Belmont, Hofstra, New Mexico State, Vermont
#14 seeds:  UC Irvine, Radford, Old Dominion, Northern Kentucky
#15 seeds:  Montana, Bucknell, Loyola-Chicago, Texas State
#16 seeds:  South Dakota State, Rider, play-in:  Sam Houston State / Prairie View, play-in:  Norfolk State / Robert Morris

First 4 Out:  San Francisco, Indiana, Saint Mary's, Arkansas


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Happy Groundhog Day

Hard to believe it is already February.  Remember, Eye is taking a bit of a different approach this season by using a model to project the teams and seeds.  As of today, the model projects the top 48 seeds (listed below) as making the tournament whether they win their conference or not.  The bottom 20 are automatic qualifiers that won't make it unless they win their respective conferences.  

Bubble Talk
The last two at large bids would go to Clemson and Utah State.  And because of the way the numbers fall, the last four in would all play-in on the 12 line.  The model indicates both Wofford and Lipscomb would get in as at-larges regardless of whether they stumble in their conferences.  San Francisco, Temple, Creighton, Seton Hall are the first four out.  But my gut tells me there will be a spot open with Nebraska on its way out very soon.

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:
#1 seeds:  Duke, Virginia, Michigan State, Tennessee
#2 seeds: Michigan, Purdue, North Carolina, Gonzaga
#3 seeds:  Kansas, Kentucky, Houston, Nevada
#4 seeds:  Louisville, LSU, Villanova, Wisconsin
#5 seeds:  Iowa State, Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, Marquette
#6 seeds:  Maryland, Buffalo, TCU, Florida State
#7 seeds:  Auburn, Oklahoma, Cincy, Iowa
#8 seeds:  Mississippi State, Washington, Kansas State, Texas
#9 seeds:  Alabama, Syracuse, Wofford, Ohio State
#10 seeds:  VCU, St. John's, Minnesota, UCF
#11 seeds:  Mississippi, Baylor, Lipscomb, Arizona State
#12 seeds:  play-in: Florida / Nebraska, play-in: Clemson / Utah State, Davidson, Hofstra
#13 seeds:  Belmont, New Mexico State, Vermont, Yale
#14 seeds:  Old Dominion, Texas State, South Dakota State, Northern Kentucky
#15 seeds:  Montana, Radford, UC Irvine, Loyola-Chicago
#16 seeds:  Lehigh, Abilene Christian, play-in: Rider / Robert Morris, play-in: Prairie View / Norfolk State

First 4 Out:  San Francisco, Temple, Creighton, Seton Hall


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

First Bracketology of 2019

Good to be back!  Eye is taking a bit of a different approach this season.  After being deceived and misled by the committee on points of emphasis over the years, I've decided to develop a model based on recent history and let the numbers do the talking.  I will no longer fall for the committee's subterfuge.  Remember the Quadrant system last year?  Yeah, neither does anybody else because in the end, it didn't matter.  This year it is NET ranking.  I'll believe it when I see it.  I'm taking the emotion out and letting the model project the teams and seeds.  As of today, the model projects the top 47 seeds (listed below) as making the tournament whether they win their conference or not.  The bottom 21 are automatic qualifiers that won't make it unless they win their respective conferences.  

Bubble Talk
The last two at large bids would go to Arizona State and Creighton.  And because of the way the numbers fall, they would play-in on the 12 line.  The model has a couple surprises comfortably in including Wofford and Utah State. Minnesota, Ohio State, San Francisco and Florida are the first four out.

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:
#1 seeds:  Duke, Michigan State, Virginia, Tennessee
#2 seeds: Kansas, Michigan, Gonzaga, North Carolina
#3 seeds:  Purdue, Louisville, Kentucky, Oklahoma
#4 seeds:  Houston, Maryland, LSU, TCU
#5 seeds:  Villanova, Nevada, Iowa St., Virginia Tech
#6 seeds:  Buffalo, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Kansas State
#7 seeds:  Mississippi St., Auburn, Marquette, Florida State
#8 seeds:  Cincy, Texas, Mississippi, Washington
#9 seeds:  Iowa, Nebraska, Alabama, St. John's
#10 seeds:  Syracuse, Wofford, UCF, Indiana
#11 seeds:  VCU, Utah State, Butler, play-in: Temple / Seton Hall
#12 seeds:  play-in:  Arizona State / Creighton, Murray State, Lipscomb, Hofstra
#13 seeds:  New Mexico State, Davidson, Yale, North Texas
#14 seeds:  Radford, Texas State, Northern Kentucky, South Dakota State
#15 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, Stony Brook, UC Irvine, Weber State
#16 seeds:  Rider, Bucknell, play-in:  Abilene Christian / Robert Morris, play-in: Prairie View / Norfolk State

First 4 Out:  Minnesota, Ohio State, San Francisco, Florida


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Final Projection

Davidson elbows into the field by winning the A10.  Going to be a crazy tournament!  Risers include Arizona, Houston, West Virginia and Providence.    


Bubble Talk
The bubble got smaller with the Davidson win. That forces two automatic qualifiers up to the 11 line.  Is Loyola-Chicago one of the two?  They shouldn't be - they have a lofty RPI of 22 but one win over an RPI top 50 team all season.  I think eight teams are vying for the final three spots.  I still have Texas, Kansas State and Oklahoma in.  I have Syracuse out (4-8 Quad 1 record, best wins against Miami, Clemson and Louisville), but they have a decent case.  Followed by Marquette (#57 RPI), Middle Tennessee State (only win over a tournament team is Murray State), Louisville (0-11 vs. RPI top 50) and ASU (#66 RPI).  


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  Duke, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Purdue
#3 seeds:  Michigan,  Michigan State, Tennessee, Auburn
#4 seeds:  Arizona, Wichita State, Houston, West Virginia
#5 seeds:  Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Clemson, Kentucky
#6 seeds:  Ohio State, Miami (FL), Arkansas, Texas A&M
#7 seeds:  Florida, Nevada, Rhode Island, Providence
#8 seeds:  TCU, Seton Hall, Missouri, Alabama
#9 seeds:  VA Tech, NC State, Butler, Florida State
#10 seeds:  St. Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, UCLA, USC
#11 seeds:  San Diego State, Davidson, play-in: Creighton / Texas,  play-in:  Kansas State / Oklahoma
#12 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State, South Dakota State, Marshall
#13 seeds:  College of Charleston, UNC Greensboro, Buffalo, Murray State
#14 seeds:  Wright State, Bucknell, Montana, UMBC  
#15 seeds:  Georgia State, SF Austin, Lipscomb, Iona  
#16 seeds:  CS Fullerton, Penn, play-in:  Radford / LIU Brooklyn, play-in: Texas Southern / NC Central  
First Five Out:   Syracuse, Marquette, Middle Tennessee State, Louisville, Arizona State


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Calm Before the Storm

Conference tournaments wrapping up.  Nevada drops a bomb on the field by losing in the MWC tournament.  They will still get in as an at-large, but now the MWC tournament winner needs a spot in the field as well.  Purdue up, Auburn down.  Kentucky up, Nevada down.  Providence up, UCLA down.  Alabama up, Butler down.  San Diego State elbows into the field as the presumed MWC winner, MTSU out.  


Bubble Talk
Nobody else on the bubble can play their way in with Oregon bowing out.  I think Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Syracuse are in.  Middle Tennessee State, Louisville, Washington, ASU and Marquette are out.  


Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

#1 seeds:  Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, Xavier
#2 seeds:  Duke, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Purdue
#3 seeds:  Auburn, Michigan,  Michigan State, Tennessee
#4 seeds:  Wichita State, Texas Tech, Gonzaga,  Clemson
#5 seeds:  Houston, Arizona, West Virginia, Ohio State
#6 seeds:  Miami (FL), Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky 
#7 seeds:  Seton Hall, Nevada, Texas A&M, TCU
#8 seeds:  Missouri, Creighton, Rhode Island, Providence
#9 seeds:  USC, UCLA, Florida State, Alabama
#10 seeds:  St. Bonaventure, Saint Mary's, VA Tech, NC State
#11 seeds:  Butler, San Diego State*,  play-in: Texas / Kansas State,  play-in:  Oklahoma / Syracuse
#12 seeds:  Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico State*, Western Kentucky*, South Dakota State
#13 seeds:   Buffalo*, Murray State, College of Charleston, UNC Greensboro
#14 seeds:  Vermont*, Louisiana-Lafayette*, Bucknell, Montana* 
#15 seeds:  Wright State, CS Fullerton*, Iona, Lipscomb 
#16 seeds:  Harvard*, Radford, play-in:  SF Austin* / LIU Brooklyn, play-in: Hampton* / Arkansas-Pine Bluff*  
First Five Out:   Middle Tennessee State, Louisville, Washington, Arizona State, Marquette

* presumed automatic qualifiers


Bracket Matrix
Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/