Tuesday, January 30, 2018

ACC Tracking for 9 Teams

Duke-UVA lived up to expectations as a hard fought heavyweight battle.  Not a lot of movement on the 1 through 3 lines.   

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:
  • #1 seeds:  Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Duke
  • #2 seeds:  Xavier, Kansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma
  • #3 seeds:   Auburn,  Clemson, Tennessee, Texas Tech
  • #4 seeds:  Arizona, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Michigan State
  • #5 seeds:  TCU, Miami (FL), West Virginia, Ohio State
  • #6 seeds:  Nevada, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Wichita State
  • #7 seeds:   Louisville, Creighton, Florida, Butler
  • #8 seeds:  Arkansas, Alabama, Florida State, Saint Mary's
  • #9 seeds:  Providence, Arizona State, Michigan, Texas
  • #10 seeds:  USC, Houston, Gonzaga, Syracuse
  • #11 seeds:  NC State, SMU, Middle Tennessee State*, play-in: Kansas State / Boise State
  • #12 seeds:  New Mexico State*, Louisiana-Lafayette*, East Tennessee State*, play-in:  Texas A&M / Washington
  • #13 seeds:  Northern Kentucky*, Belmont*, Vermont*, South Dakota*
  • #14 seeds:  Bucknell*, Buffalo*, Loyola-Chicago*, Penn*
  • #15 seeds:  Iona*, Florida Gulf Coast*, Montana*, SF Austin* 
  • #16 seeds:  College of Charleston*, UC Santa Barbara*, play-in: Wagner* / Radford*, play-in: Jackson State* / North Carolina A&T*  
  • First Six Out:  Marquette, Missouri, Western Kentucky, Maryland, Georgia, VA Tech
   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk
NC State surges into the field.  Now 4-4 against the RPI top 25.  Marquette falls out of the field at 1-6 against the RPI top 25, 2-7 against the RPI top 50.  Texas A&M still in the field, for now, but needs to improve upon its 2-6 conference record.  Still a lot of teams in play on the bubble so I lengthened the list from First Four Out to First Six Out.   

Bracket Matrix

Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Friday, January 26, 2018

Final Weekend in January

My four projected #1 seeds are holding steady.  Is Duke-UVA this weekend a Final Four preview?   

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

  • #1 seeds:  Villanova, Duke, Virginia, Purdue
  • #2 seeds:  Xavier, North Carolina, Kansas, Oklahoma
  • #3 seeds:   Auburn,  Clemson, Tennessee, Texas Tech
  • #4 seeds:  West Virginia, Arizona, TCU, Cincinnati
  • #5 seeds:   Miami (FL), Michigan State, Ohio State, Rhode Island
  • #6 seeds:  Kentucky, Nevada, Seton Hall, Wichita State
  • #7 seeds:   Louisville, Creighton, Butler, Florida
  • #8 seeds:  Texas A&M, Michigan, Florida State, Arizona State
  • #9 seeds:  Saint Mary's, Arkansas, Providence, Texas
  • #10 seeds:  Alabama, Houston, SMU, Gonzaga
  • #11 seeds:  Kansas State, USC, Middle Tennessee State*, play-in: Marquette / Syracuse
  • #12 seeds:  New Mexico State*, Louisiana-Lafayette*, East Tennessee State*, play-in:  Boise State / Washington
  • #13 seeds:  Northern Kentucky*, Belmont*, Vermont*, South Dakota*
  • #14 seeds:  Bucknell*, Buffalo*, Loyola-Chicago*, Penn*
  • #15 seeds:  Iona*, Florida Gulf Coast*, Montana*, SF Austin* 
  • #16 seeds:  William & Mary*, Hawaii*, play-in: Robert Morris* / Radford*, play-in: Jackson State* / North Carolina Central*  
  • First Four Out:  Missouri, Western Kentucky, Georgia, Maryland
   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk
The fringe teams have been fading so I moved Middle Tennessee State up to the 11 line and moved the second play-in game down to the 12 line.  Georgia and Missouri move out of the field, Syracuse and Washington move in (that win at Kansas is a huge resume booster for the Huskies).   

Bracket Matrix

Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

#1 Seeds Remain Unchanged in Latest Projection

My four projected #1 seeds are holding steady. Biggest mover this week was taking Michigan State up to a #5 seed from a #8.  They did destroy Indiana over the weekend but their 18-3 record is still fairly soft (#29 RPI, #102 SoS, 1 win against the RPI top 50). 

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

  • #1 seeds:  Villanova, Duke, Purdue, Virginia
  • #2 seeds:  Xavier, North Carolina, Kansas, Clemson
  • #3 seeds:  Oklahoma, Auburn,  Tennessee, West Virginia
  • #4 seeds:  Ohio State, TCU, Texas Tech, Florida
  • #5 seeds:  Cincinnati, Michigan State,  Arizona, Seton Hall
  • #6 seeds:  Kentucky, Rhode Island, Louisville, Nevada
  • #7 seeds:   Miami (FL), Wichita State, Arizona State,  Creighton
  • #8 seeds:  Florida State, Providence, Michigan, Butler
  • #9 seeds:  Texas A&M, Alabama, Missouri, Arkansas
  • #10 seeds:  Texas, Saint Mary's, Marquette, Gonzaga
  • #11 seeds:  SMU, Houston, play-in: Boise State / USC , play-in: Georgia / Kansas State
  • #12 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, New Mexico State*, Louisiana-Lafayette*, East Tennessee State*
  • #13 seeds:  Northern Kentucky*, Murray State*, Vermont*, South Dakota State*
  • #14 seeds:  Bucknell*, Buffalo*, Loyola-Chicago*, Penn*
  • #15 seeds:  Iona*, Florida Gulf Coast*, Montana*, SF Austin* 
  • #16 seeds:  UC Davis*, William & Mary*,  play-in: Robert Morris* / Radford*, play-in: Jackson State* / North Carolina Central*  
  • First Four Out:  Notre Dame, Maryland, Syracuse, UCLA
   * presumed automatic qualifiers

Bubble Talk
Kansas State surges into the field after yet another quality win - this time against TCU.  SMU, Georgia and Houston all sitting at 4 wins versus the RPI top 50.  Boise State hanging in there with a 15-4 record despite no wins against the RPI top 50.  UCLA on a three game losing streak and fading fast. 

Bracket Matrix

Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Thursday, January 18, 2018

2018 Road to the Final Four

Now that conference play is well underway, I figured it was time to post my first bracket of the season.  Lots of parity this season.  The Big 10 has been a Big Disappointment.  The Big 12 has been one big cage match.  But does the Big East end up sending even more teams than the Big 12?  We shall see how things play out over the coming weeks.  Lots of season left to make a run at a tournament bid.

Bracketology
My field prognostication as of today is as follows:

  • #1 seeds:  Villanova, Duke, Virginia, Purdue
  • #2 seeds:  North Carolina, Xavier, Kansas, Oklahoma
  • #3 seeds:  Clemson,  Seton Hall, Texas Tech, West Virginia
  • #4 seeds:  Kentucky, Ohio State, Auburn, Creighton
  • #5 seeds:  Tennessee, TCU, Cincinnati, Arizona
  • #6 seeds:  Rhode Island, Louisville, Arizona State, Miami (FL)
  • #7 seeds:  Wichita State, Michigan, Nevada, Florida
  • #8 seeds:  Michigan State, Missouri, Florida State, Gonzaga
  • #9 seeds:  Texas A&M, Butler, Texas, Marquette
  • #10 seeds:  Saint Mary's, SMU, Alabama, Arkansas
  • #11 seeds:  Notre Dame, Syracuse, play-in: Providence / Georgia, play-in: Houston / Boise State  
  • #12 seeds:  Middle Tennessee State*, New Mexico State*, LA Lafayette*, East Tennessee State*
  • #13 seeds:  Northern Kentucky*, Murray State*, Vermont*, South Dakota State*
  • #14 seeds:  Bucknell*, Buffalo*, Loyola-Chicago*, Penn*
  • #15 seeds:  Iona*, Florida Gulf Coast*, Montana*, SF Austin*
  • #16 seeds:  UC Davis*, William & Mary*,  play-in: Robert Morris* / Radford*, play-in: Jackson State* / North Carolina Central*  
  • First Four Out:  UCLA, USC, Maryland, Kansas State

   * presumed automatic qualifiers


Bubble Talk
As it stands, my Last Four In are Providence, Georgia, Houston and Boise State.  Arguments can be made for all of my First Four Out, but they are not without their warts. UCLA is 2-3 against the RPI top 50, USC is 1-3 against the RPI top 50, Maryland is 1-6 against the RPI top 50 and Kansas State is 1-4 against the RPI top 50 with an RPI of 70 (although they just pounded Oklahoma). 

Bracket Matrix

Check this site out.  Great compilation of expert and amateur bracket projections.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/